A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College reveals former President Donald Trump holds commanding leads in Florida and Texas just a month before Election Day. The survey, released Tuesday, shows Trump ahead by 13 percentage points in Florida and 6 points in Texas, significantly outpacing Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.
Trump’s lead in Florida is particularly notable, given he won the state by 3.4% in the 2020 election. Once considered a key battleground state, Florida has trended Republican in recent cycles, with Trump carrying it in both 2016 and 2020. Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, though it’s rapidly becoming more demographically diverse.
Some Democrats had hoped that Harris’ momentum since becoming the frontrunner in July—after President Biden’s withdrawal—might help flip GOP-leaning states. However, the poll results cast doubt on that possibility.
Despite Trump’s clear advantage in these two states, the poll paints a tighter national picture. Harris holds a slim 3% lead over Trump across the country, a sign of the close race nationally. This is the first time Harris has led in a Times/Siena poll since July.
However, the survey also reveals areas of concern for Harris, particularly among young voters. In Michigan, Trump is tied with Harris among younger demographics—a group that largely favored President Biden in 2020.
The Times reports that Trump holds several clear advantages over his 2020 performance, including an 11-point lead among male voters, significantly higher than the 2-point margin he secured four years ago. Additionally, 42% of respondents said Trump’s policies personally benefited them, compared to just 22% for the Biden-Harris administration:
More voters said they trusted Mr. Trump than Ms. Harris to manage what continues to be the top area of concern: the economy. (Abortion and immigration were a distant second place.) The economic mood in the nation remains glum — 75 percent of respondents said the economy was in fair or poor condition, the same as last month. And nearly three-quarters of respondents said they sometimes cut back on groceries in the last year because of cost.
“As a businessman, I think Trump can see the bigger picture and he can say, ‘Oh, maybe we can do this to help people,’” said Barbara Storesina, 65, a retired school secretary in Canton, Ohio. “Whereas the Democrats and Harris, I don’t feel that they care about the average person like me. They don’t care about whether we’re struggling or whether we need help with something.”
But even on the critical question of whom voters trust to handle their most important issue, Ms. Harris has made some small strides: Mr. Trump’s edge on that question is just two points, 48 percent to 46 percent, compared with five points in September.
“I can’t trust Donald Trump,” said Rance Johnson, 54, a construction manager in Houston, who said he did not identify with a party and intended to vote for Ms. Harris. “He is trying to get in office and I’m thinking he wants to be in office for his own gain.”
Beyond the presidential race, Senate contests in both Florida and Texas are heating up as Election Day nears. Polling shows these races becoming increasingly competitive, but Trump’s advantages in these states could prove decisive.
The Times/Siena poll was conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6, surveying 3,385 voters nationwide, including 622 in Florida and 617 in Texas. The overall margin of error for the poll is 2.4 percentage points.
With tight margins nationwide, the race is far from settled as both campaigns intensify their efforts in the final weeks.
READ NEXT: [REPORT] Supreme Court’s Quiet BIG Move On Trump’s Constitutional Rights
Hello, Democrat Dirty Tricks Department? I’d like to order a hurricane for Texas, please! Before November 5th for maximum disruption.
Mum’s the word, of course. The check’s in the mail.
Victory
For the life of me I don’t understand how the polls are showing this race as a toss up!! Harris was voted the most liberal senator over Bernie Sanders and was voted the worst VP ever. Just 3-4 months ago the Democrat party wanted to replace her as Biden’s VP. How did she all of a sudden become so popular? This makes absolutely no sense to me.