A new poll commissioned by Rep. Elise Stefanik’s political action committee shows a tightening race between the North Country Republican and New York Governor Kathy Hochul, should the two face off in the 2026 gubernatorial election.
The Grayhouse poll finds Hochul leading Stefanik 48% to 43% in a head-to-head matchup. However, that margin vanishes after voters are informed about Hochul’s September 2025 endorsement of far-left Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race. In that scenario, the contest effectively ties, with Stefanik at 46.4% and Hochul close behind at 45.9%.
Assemblyman Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist representing Queens, has built his platform on aggressively progressive policies — pushing for government-run grocery stores in every borough and raising the city’s minimum wage to $30 an hour. (RELATED: Another City Is Following In Mamdani’s Footsteps With State-Run Grocery Stores)
Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani was not returned. The assemblyman declined to back Hochul publicly, a move that has only amplified Republican criticism that the governor is catering to the political fringe without securing support in return.
Republicans have seized on the episode as further proof that Hochul is drifting away from New York’s political center, leaving moderate and suburban voters behind.
While New York is still considered safely blue statewide, the poll suggests growing Republican strength in upstate and suburban regions. Both areas saw significant GOP swings during the 2024 presidential election, driven largely by public concern over crime, illegal immigration, and deteriorating urban conditions.
Sources close to Stefanik believe those trends could continue through 2026, particularly if Democrats remain entangled with controversial figures on the party’s far left.
The New York Post reports:
The survey, paid for by Stefanik’s leadership fundraising committee E-PAC, showed likely gubernatorial voters also downgraded Hochul for her record on supporting bail reform in New York and other cost-of-living concerns.
Hochul’s job performance rating is also underwater, 56% to 39%, and at least half of the likely voters polled strongly disapprove of the Democrat.
Meanwhile, just 34% of the likely voters said as of this month they were ready to re-elect Hochul, while 59% said it was time for someone new.
Pollster Landon Wall, of the firm Grayhouse, said his survey of 1,250 likely 2026 midterm voters reveals Hochul is in a “deeply vulnerable position.”
In a memo summarizing the poll’s findings, Wall didn’t mince words about the governor’s precarious situation. “Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,” he wrote.
Political analysts are warning against reading too much into a single poll, particularly one commissioned by a candidate-aligned PAC. While the numbers suggest movement, some experts caution that partisan polling can reflect favorable framing and selective questions.
Still, the shift in voter response after learning about Hochul’s Mamdani endorsement suggests that swing voters may be increasingly uneasy with the governor’s alignment with Democratic Socialists. For Republicans looking to flip the state executive office for the first time in two decades, it’s a potential line of attack that could resonate beyond the GOP base.
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Now; it’s time for the rest of the New Yorkers to wake up !!
There’s absolutely nothing “progressive” about the democrat agenda, especially in the extreme positions of the Squad and Mandamn. We need to stop using their terminology.