Despite the ongoing media frenzy over Kamala Harris, Donald Trump holds a steady national lead. Harvard-Harris’ latest poll reveals Trump at a robust 52% when leaners are included, maintaining his edge even as Harris narrows the gap.
But here’s the kicker: if Trump leads nationally, he’s likely pulling ahead by even larger margins in key swing states. This means big trouble for Harris.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
According to Harvard-Harris, among voters who have made up their minds, Trump leads Harris 48% to 45%. Last month, Trump led President Biden by 7 points, which brings us back to pre-debate levels. However, when leaners are included, Trump rises to 52%, while Harris sits at 48%. This 4-point edge hasn’t budged since last month, even with Biden in the mix.
Who Was Polled?
Out of 2,196 respondents, the sample skews left:
- 883 Democrats
- 654 Republicans
- 544 Independents
Breaking Down the Battlegrounds
In contrast, let’s analyze partisan affiliation in four out of the six key battleground states, using the latest state data available as of 2024:
- Arizona: Republicans/lean Republican: 35.07% (representing a plurality)
- Georgia: Republicans/lean Republican: 41% (tied with Democrats)
- Nevada: Republicans: 28.96% (compared to Democrats at 30.83% and unaffiliated at 32.96%)
- Pennsylvania: Republicans: 40.03% (Democrats: 44.85%)
Ad Wars: Game On!
Despite Harris outspending Trump by $27 million on Google and social media ads last week, Trump’s first major TV ad buy has hit critical swing states. His ads, portraying Harris as dangerously liberal on key issues like border security, are targeting the small slice of persuadable voters in a $12 million two-week blitz across six top battlegrounds: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Noticeably absent is Minnesota, a state no Republican has carried since Nixon in 1972.
Trump’s campaign knows where to hit hard, and with the first major TV ad purchase since Harris emerged as the Democrat’s de facto nominee, the race for the White House is only heating up.
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Excellent analysis showing how/why the polling oversampled the left (leans left).