As 2024 draws to a close, the political landscape continues to shift, and President-elect Donald Trump is once again in the spotlight, responding to a recent report that President Joe Biden privately regrets stepping out of the 2024 race. During his New Year’s Eve gala at Mar-a-Lago, Trump addressed the claim, dismissing any notion that Biden could have beaten him in the general election. Trump’s comments come on the heels of internal polling that reportedly showed a commanding victory for him, with the potential to secure 400 Electoral College votes if Biden had remained in the race.
The Washington Post report that sparked Trump’s remarks revealed that Biden, while publicly remaining supportive of his decision to step aside in favor of a “younger generation” of Democrats, privately regrets dropping out of the race. The report suggested that Biden believes he could have beaten Trump in the election had he stayed in the race. According to sources close to Biden, his decision to exit was influenced by party pressure and concerns over his age and approval ratings, but internally, he harbored doubts about whether he had been right to step down.
At the Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve event, Trump wasted little time in responding to the report, reiterating his belief that Biden was never a serious threat. Trump dismissed the idea that Biden had a real chance of defeating him, stating, “He was way behind, he would have, I assume, not had a chance. He was way behind her.” The “her” Trump was referring to was Kamala Harris.
Trump’s response also leaned heavily into the idea that his victory was inevitable, claiming that he “won in record numbers, as you know, every swing state” and even “won the popular vote by millions and millions of people.”
According to internal polling data from the Biden campaign, if Biden had remained in the race, the president-elect was projected to win as many as 400 Electoral College votes—a significant increase over the 312 Electoral College votes he won against Kamala Harris.
This internal polling, though not independently verified, suggested that Trump would have maintained or increased his margins in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states that were pivotal in his 2016 victory. Furthermore, Trump was predicted to capture even more of the suburban vote, traditionally a stronghold for Democrats, owing to his economic policies and tough stance on issues like immigration and crime.
Trump also referenced his 2024 debate performance against Biden, suggesting that the debate was a defining moment in the race and one of the main reasons Biden ultimately withdrew from the race. Biden’s cognitive decline could no longer be denied or downplayed following his debate performance, leading to his ousting from the Democratic ticket. However, Trump’s suggestion that Biden’s failure in the debates contributed to his downfall is consistent with his narrative of a weak and ineffective opponent.
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