The attacks that went after the heart of Russia’s strategic aviation capabilities and one arm of its nuclear deterrent should serve as a global wake-up call.
By Howard Altman, Tyler Rogoway The War Zone
Ukraine carried out a massive drone strike at airbases across Russia on Sunday, claiming to have destroyed dozens of aircraft. There are also indications that Russia’s Northern Fleet headquarters, home of Russian nuclear submarines, was attacked as well. Overall, the attack was clearly aimed at Russia’s most prized strategic aerial assets, which cannot be replaced quickly in any manner and doing so at all would be extremely expensive.
“The Security Service of Ukraine is conducting a large-scale special operation to destroy bomber aircraft in the rear of the Russian Federation,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff stated on Telegram. “SBU drones have hit more than 40 aircraft, including A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3, causing damage of over $2 billion.”
The operation, codenamed “Web,” targeted four key Russian airbases: Belaya, Diaghilevo, Olenya and Ivanovo, the Kyiv Post reported.
There was no immediate response from Russian officials.
While The War Zone cannot independently verify these claims, video has emerged showing Russian bombers being struck by drones. We have geolocated the video to show that the attack was on the Olenya base, even though it was widely reported as the Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk.
Multiple videos show that the attacks apparently came from first-person view (FPV) drones launched from trucks parked nearby.
The Russian air base in Olenegorsk, Murmansk, was also attacked.
Explosions and flames were observed at Russia’s Northern Fleet headquarters in Murmansk. It is home to some of Russia’s most capable submarines, like the Yasen-M class nuclear-powered cruise missile carrying Kazan.
Russian officials denied that the Northern Fleet headquarters was attacked.
“The information about explosions in Severomorsk, which is being spread on social networks, does not correspond to reality,” the head of the city said, according to the Russian Operation Z Telegram channel. “The situation is currently stable. No threats have been recorded. Do not panic and trust only verified sources of information!”
As all of this was taking place, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said Russia conducted one of its biggest attacks of the war, launching 472 drones and seven ballistic and cruise missiles across the country. Ukraine says it “neutralised” 385 aerial targets.
Broader Context
As we noted in the opening of this story, the fact that Ukraine went after some of Russia’s most prized aerial capabilities, many of which are directly tied to its nuclear deterrent, greatly ups the ante. We don’t know how many strategic aircraft Russia lost today, but it could be a large portion of its long-range cruise missile carrier aircraft. While these aircraft have rained destruction on Ukraine from afar and are legitimate targets, they also underpin a leg of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. This will undoubtedly provoke a unique response from the Kremlin who has warned that widespread attacks against its strategic capabilities would be a red line.
The threat of wide-scale, low-end, localized drone attacks against prized aircraft sitting at airfields — including in the U.S. homeland — has been a brewing threat, as TWZ highlighted repeatedly for many years, which includes the exact scenario that occurred in Ukraine in the last 24 hours. Drone technology has proliferated dramatically since, and the threshold requirements for executing such an attack have dropped considerably. At the same time, defenses against these types of threats still lag behind, both in wartime Russia and most everywhere else.
This is also a glaring case of how the lack of any kind of hardened shelters leaves aircraft totally exposed to attack., which is another reality TWZ has highlighted for years, but still has not changed the U.S. investment strategy in this kind of infrastructure, even at forward locales in the Pacific. Meanwhile, drone incursions of U.S. bases at home and abroad — another issue TWZ reported on exclusively for years — have shown just how vulnerable even the Department of Defense’s most prized and critical aerial assets are.
There is also artificial intelligence-enabled low-end drones now becoming a reality. This would allow these aircraft to fly much farther without any radio control and hit targets they recognize autonomously. You can read all about that major development and its massive implications, which have been spurred by the war in Ukraine, here.
It is unclear what control method the drones used to strike aircraft at these bases were. FPV types with a human-in-the-loop nearby are possible, as are ones programmed to hit precise GPS coordinates. Both have major advantages and glaring vulnerabilities. AI-enabled ones that use image matching are possible too, which would allow the strikes to occur without emitting radio-frequency emissions and without the chance of the drones being jammed. The drones would also not require individual controllers and, like those programmed to hit GPS coordinates, they could be launched and strike in rapid succession. Russia has been covering their aircraft with tires in hopes of confusing image-matching autonomous drones in case of this kind of attack, which the TWZ was first to report on.
This is a developing story, and we will update it with pertinent new information.
Update: 11:50 AM Eastern –
The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) commented on the attacks.
“Today, the Kyiv regime carried out a terrorist attack using FPV drones against airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions,” the MoD stated on Telegram. “At military airfields in the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions, all terrorist attacks were repelled. In the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, as a result of the launch of FPV drones from the territory located in the immediate vicinity of airfields, several units of aircraft caught fire.”
The fires “have been extinguished,” the MoD added. “There are no casualties among military personnel or civilians. Some of the participants in the terrorist attacks have been detained.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “personally supervised the operation, and Vasyl Malyuk and the SBU team implemented the plan. 41 Russian strategic aviation aircraft were hit,” Ukrainian journalist Sergey Bratchuk wrote Telegram. “According to sources, this operation was extremely difficult from a logistical point of view. The SBU first transported FPV drones to Russia, and later – mobile wooden houses. Later, in the territory of the Russian Federation, the drones were hidden under the roofs of houses already placed on trucks. At the right moment, the roofs of the houses were remotely opened, and the drones flew to strike Russian bombers.”
Sources in the SBU “emphasize that the people who participated in this historic special operation have been in Ukraine for a long time,” Bratchuk added. “So, if the Putin regime demonstratively detains someone, it will be another staged operation.”
Irkutsk Oblast Governor Igor Kobzev confirmed that drones were launched from a truck.
“At the moment, it is known that this was a drone attack on a military unit in the village of Sredniy,” he stated on Telegram. “The source from which the drones were launched has already been blocked. It’s a truck. The main thing is not to panic. There is no threat to the lives and health of civilians.”
Meanwhile new video emerged of the attack on Olenya.
The large-scale attack comes ahead of a scheduled meeting in Istanbul that is part of ongoing peace talks.
“We are doing everything to protect our independence, our state, and our people,” Zelensky said on X. “I outlined the tasks for the near term and also defined our positions ahead of the meeting in Istanbul on Monday. First – a full and unconditional ceasefire. Second – the release of prisoners. Third – the return of abducted children. And in order to establish a reliable and lasting peace and ensure security, preparation of the meeting at the highest level. The key issues can only be resolved by the leaders. On Monday, our delegation will be led by Rustem Umerov.”
Update: 12:53 PM Eastern –
Ukraine informed the Trump administration about the attacks ahead of time, according to Axios.
The containers with the drones were assembled in Russia, according to Russian milblogger Sergey Kolyasnikov
“We found a warehouse where containers with drones were collected, Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk tract 28A,” he wrote on Telegram. “It was rented for 350,000 rubles (about $4,500). That’s why the truck in the Amur region had Chelyabinsk license plates – they were leaving from there.”
The Russian Rybar Telegram channel lauded local residents who tried to stop the launch of the drones from trucks.
“In attacks like today’s, one can often observe the stupid behavior of the native civilian population, when in the fourth year of the SVO they race to film the landings and post them on the Internet, in fact helping the enemy,” Rybar wrote. “Fortunately, there are also examples of the opposite: a video has gone viral on the Internet showing how caring drivers in a parking lot in the Irkutsk region climbed onto a truck from which drones were taking off and tried to destroy them with stones and improvised means. People risked their lives: the drone’s warhead is not the smallest, and what would happen if it detonated is a rhetorical question. But the men still tried to save others, even though they were ordinary civilians.”
“We hope that their merits will be duly noted, fortunately there have already been precedents,” Rybar added. “However, the picture is clear: the failures of some lead to the fact that the last line of defense is ordinary men, forced to break drones with their bare hands.”
Update: 1:20 PM Eastern –
Axios is backtracking on its original story, now saying the attack was a surprise to the Trump administration.
“Ukraine did not notify the Trump administration of the attack in advance, a Ukrainian official said,” the outlet is now reporting. “A U.S. official also told reporters the Trump administration was not made aware of the attack.”
Earlier today, The War Zone reached out to the White House and we will add any pertinent details provided.
Update: 2:09 PM Eastern –
There are claims, so far unconfirmed, that Ukraine destroyed Tu-160 Blackjack bombers in the attack.
“According to the available information, the defeat of two Tu-160 at the Belaya airfield is confirmed,” Ukrainian journalist Alexander Kovalenko claimed on Telegram. The War Zone cannot independently verify that.
“The strategists were not completely destroyed, but their damage is unlikely to be repaired by the Russian military-industrial complex in its current state in the near future,” Kovalenko added. “I will note that almost all Russian strategic missile carrier-bombers of the Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 series are not produced in Russia! What Russian propaganda passed off as the release of new Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 aircraft was nothing more than additional equipment for Soviet backlogs! To date, Russia has not produced a single, completely new, from scratch, Tu-22M3 or Tu-160 aircraft, only modifications from the times of the USSR.”
Regardless of which bombers were destroyed or how many, this attack represents a major coup for Ukrainian planning and operational security. Said to be in the works for more than a year, this plan reportedly included having drones installed on trucks and then covered by what appeared to be wooden structures resembling houses inside Russia. That is truly astonishing.
Update: 2:27 PM Eastern –
Planning for this attack began more than 18 months ago, Zelensky said on X.
“Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Maliuk delivered a report regarding today’s operation,” the Ukrainian leader wrote. “An absolutely brilliant result. A result achieved solely by Ukraine. One year, six months, and nine days from the start of planning to effective execution. Our most long-range operation. Our people involved in preparing the operation were withdrawn from Russian territory in time. I thanked General Maliuk for this success of Ukraine. I instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to inform the public about the details and results of the operation that can be disclosed. Of course, not everything can be revealed at this moment, but these are Ukrainian actions that will undoubtedly be in history books. Ukraine is defending itself, and rightly so – we are doing everything to make Russia feel the need to end this war. Russia started this war, Russia must end it. Glory to Ukraine!”
Find this article on TWZ.com.
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