Polling in the presidential race has consistently shown that the major party candidates are running neck-and-neck, but with former President Donald Trump enjoying headline leads in the handful of so-called “battleground” states that could decide the election.
And for reference, those states are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won all but one of them – North Carolina – in 2020.
That long-standing pattern of a close race holds true with the latest batch of battleground state numbers from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News/Morning Consult.
In both polls, Biden is playing catch-up to Trump. But in both polls, the Trump margins are small – either within or close to the margin of error.
Which also fits what we've long known: it's still anyone's race.
And as always with polling of any sort, it's essential to realize these are snapshots in time. The numbers can and will change – especially because both polls are still relying on registered voters rather than the more predictive likely voters.
All that aside…it's polling data like this which helps explain the major parties scrambling to tamp down third party and independent presidential bids. The fewer choices voters have, in theory, the more likely they are to hold their noses and pick one of the two major party offerings.
One thing to keep track of, however, is the none of the above/refusenik vote. As Reason's Katherine Mangu-Ward writes, the number of protest votes in presidential primaries have demonstrated that not all is well for the presumptive presidential nominees, concluding that “…at the most basic level…Voters aren't thrilled with their options.”
That's not unusual in presidential elections, which more often than not are framed as a choice between the lesser of two evils.
Or this time around, the less dodgy and dangerous of two elderly men. Neither of whom is very popular:
If Trump's and Biden's net favorability ratings remain underwater through Election Day, 2024 will be only the second presidential election since at least 1980 in which Americans had a negative view of both candidates. The first was in 2016 — which also happens to be the only recent presidential election in which the two candidates were, on average, more disliked than Trump and Biden are now.
In theory, America deserves better candidates who can at least claim a degree of understanding, if not popularity, from the other side of the political aisle. But when offered alternatives in the major party presidential primaries, Team Red and Team Blue faithful chose the re-treads.
Perhaps we get exactly the major party candidates we deserve.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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