Polar Flashpoint: War In The Arctic

Trump is clear on this threat. With the northern polar ice cap melting at an alarming rate, making huge gas, oil and mineral deposits worth trillions of dollars accessible for the first time, the risk of a major war breaking out in the Arctic is growing daily.  

The melting Arctic also provides new faster shipping trade routes, primarily for Russia and China, and opens up the possibility for naval and missile attacks from the polar north, impossible just a few decades ago.

While no country owns the Arctic, Russia holds over 53% of the Arctic Ocean coastline, with the rest divided among Canada, the United States — via Alaska — and three Scandinavian NATO allies, Finland, Sweden, and Norway, plus Iceland.

Denmark also borders the Arctic via its control over the Faroe Islands, and Greenland, where the U.S. has a critical space base.

President Trump has dramatically highlighted the strategic value of the Arctic by suggesting that the U.S. should take control of Greenland, “one way or another.” And he knows why.

The Arctic is also a frontier between Russia and NATO, and contains the only direct boundary between the U.S. and Russia — on the water through the Bering Strait.

With NATO’s addition of Sweden and, more importantly, Finland — which shares a 835 mile border with Russia — there is an increased risk that a NATO Arctic state could be attacked by Russia. 

Vladimir Putin believes domination of the region’s resources is critical to the economic survival of his regime. The Arctic is estimated to hold 412 billion barrels of oil and gas, about a quarter of the world’s undiscovered reserves. And he is making increasing claims over Arctic areas.

Though the U.S. and Denmark have filed sovereignty claims in the central Arctic Ocean, Moscow is the one that in 2007 planted a titanium Russian flag on the seabed two-and-a-half miles under the North Pole.

Ensuring freedom of navigation in newly accessible maritime corridors is a growing concern, particularly given Russia’s assertions of control over the Northern Sea Route.

More aggressive Russian claims in the Arctic could force NATO to act and risk sparking global war. And while Putin is the most likely villain to provoke a conflict in the Arctic, Xi Jinping’s communist China, a strong Russian ally which now calls itself a ‘near-Arctic state,’ could join the fray as well.

Meanwhile, Russia already operates a third more military bases in the Arctic than the U.S. and its NATO allies, and is reactivating old Soviet bases or building new ones at an alarming rate.

Putin is also moving additional troops, icebreakers, warships and submarines to the region, as well as conducting a larger number of Arctic military drills, including tests of hypersonic missiles capable of evading U.S. air defenses.

Russia is extensively modernizing its Northern Fleet, with the deployment of advanced air defense and anti-ship systems. Strategic locations, such as the Franz Josef Land archipelago, not far from Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, have seen new or upgraded military infrastructure.

China, although lacking direct access to the Arctic, is strategically positioning itself in the region and actively pursuing the “Polar Silk Road” initiative. Beijing has invested in Arctic infrastructure and research, as demonstrated by the construction of two Xue Long-class icebreakers and the establishment of research stations in Svalbard. But it can also piggyback on Russian assets.

As the Anchorage Daily News reported:

These threats are not speculative. In recent years, Russia and China have increased their military cooperation and presence in Arctic and Pacific waters, including joint patrols near the Aleutian Islands and in the Bering Sea. The Pentagon has explicitly warned that China seeks to become a polar power, leveraging Russia’s Arctic infrastructure and military coordination. In parallel, Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently emphasized that the melting Arctic is rapidly becoming a key global shipping corridor—and a zone of strategic competition.

I will take it even further. The Arctic may be where the next big war begins.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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