An Israeli journalist says he received death threats and pressure to alter his reporting after publishing details about an Iranian missile strike—apparently tied to a multimillion-dollar betting market.
Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, reported that an Iranian missile struck an open area outside Jerusalem on March 10, causing no injuries. His account cited rescue services and video footage showing a large explosion from the missile’s warhead.
Following publication, Fabian said he was contacted by individuals urging him to change his report to describe the incident as debris from an interceptor, rather than a direct missile strike.
“My minor report on a missile striking an open area was now in the middle of a betting war, with those who had bet ‘No’ on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 demanding I change my article to ensure they would win big,” Fabian wrote.
He later discovered that many of those contacting him appeared to be participants in a Polymarket prediction market tied to whether Iran would strike Israel on that date. According to Fabian, more than $14 million had been wagered on the outcome.
The market’s rules specified that intercepted missiles or drones would not count as a confirmed strike. Fabian’s reporting, therefore, had potential implications for how the bet would be resolved.
Fabian said he began receiving threatening messages via email and WhatsApp, including warnings to “update the lie” and suggestions that failure to do so could result in serious consequences.
“You have 90 minutes left to update the lie,” a message read, according to Fabian. “If you do this — you solve in a minute the most serious problem you have caused yourself in life. And you won’t remember me anymore in a week.”
Another message that followed read, “If you decide not to correct it, and leave the lie intact, you will discover enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable — within the framework of the law.”
“And as far as I know, there are also some people who don’t really care about the law, and you’re going to make them lose about 50 times what you’ll ever make,” another message on WhatsApp read, according to Fabian.
In one instance, another journalist told Fabian that an acquaintance had offered financial compensation in exchange for convincing him to change his reporting. The acquaintance later admitted to placing bets on Polymarket.
In response, Polymarket condemned the threats and said it had banned the accounts involved. The company added that it would share information with relevant authorities.
“Prediction markets depend on the integrity of independent reporting,” a spokesperson said. “Attempts to pressure journalists to alter their reporting undermine that integrity and the markets themselves.”
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