Paper Shows Gun Ownership May Be Double Previous Estimate

On June 23, a paper on the underreporting of firearm ownership was published in the Journal “Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology.” The title is “Predicting potential underreporting of firearm ownership in a nationally representative sample”, hereafter referred to as “the paper”.  The paper indicated the number of people who refuse to report they are firearm owners, who have been called “shy” firearms owners, are about as numerous as firearms owners who are willing to identify themselves as such.

The paper is behind a paywall online. Allison E. Bond, the principal author of the paper, was very kind and quickly sent a copy for me to read for this article.

The paper used a sample of 3500 people who were chosen to be a representative of United States adults.  The number of adults in the United States at the time of the survey was about 258 million.  The paper found that 34.6% of them admitted to owning firearms, about 89 million. The paper estimated another 29.6% of respondents were likely to be “shy” gun owners. This would put the total number of gun owners in the USA at 64.2% of adults or 166 million. The paper found that American gun owners are more diverse than previously thought. The percentage of women and people of color who own guns is growing rapidly.

The number of “shy” firearms owners has been a major uncertainty overhanging the study of firearms ownership and its effects in the United States.  The paper approached the uncertainty from the perspective of interest in understanding and preventing suicide in the US population. While the paper acknowledged 50% of suicides in the USA involve firearms, it did not mention the percentage involving firearms has fallen from about 60% in the early and mid 1990's.

Any attempt to measure the number of “shy” gun owners is a difficult task. The paper was clear about the difficulty. From the paper: 

Ultimately, our model cannot conclusively determine whether those designated as potential firearm owners truly owned firearms at the time of the survey—nor can we determine why they falsely denied firearm ownership if, in fact, they did so.

As is common in academic studies, the paper calls for more study.  There are several ways a better understanding of the actual number of gun owners might be gleaned from careful gathering of data. Surveys might be designed to find the “shy” gun owner. An intensive investigation of small samples might prove informative. Statistical evidence may be available from the FBI NICS system. The few states that require gun registration for legal ownership may give clues to trends in gun ownership numbers. From the paper:

Several limitations must be considered in interpreting our findings. First, our model cannot conclusively determine whether any of the probable firearm owners are actual firearm owners. As such, this preliminary examination rests on empirical assumptions and must be seen as an initial test in need of independent replication and more nuanced analysis.

The number of gun owners who were willing to announce their ownership status in a survey is fairly close to the large survey done in 2021 by Dr. William English. Dr. English found 31.9% of adults were willing to disclose they owned a firearm, which compares favorably to the 34.6% found in the current paper.  Both of the surveys were done with known samples rather than as random telephone surveys. The response to telephone surveys has  fallen enormously since 1997. The response in 1997 was 36%. From pewresearch.org:

In 2017 and 2018, typical telephone survey response rates fell to 7% and 6%, respectively, according to the Center's latest data. Response rates had previously held steady around 9% for several years.

Random telephone surveys have become less and less reliable as a result of a lack of participation.

Analysis:

The precise number of “shy” gun owners is not clear. The number is probably substantial. Such numbers have significant political consequences. If there are 166 million gun-owning adults in the USA, it explains much of the political success of Second Amendment supporters. If nearly half of them are “shy” gun owners, the “shy” gun owners may also be “shy” about responding to surveys that indicate support for or against the right to keep and bear arms. The most important implication is that it is probable a majority of voters are also gun owners.

Read the original article in its entirety at Gun Watch.