After three hours of five rounds of secret ballot voting, the House Republican Conference selected Congressman Tom Emmer (R-MN-6), the current Majority Whip (No. 3 in House GOP seniority after the majority leader and the speaker), with 117 votes. Congressman Mike Johnson (R-LA-4), the vice chair of the House Republican Conference, received 97.
Following these results, Congressman Johnson pledged his support to Emmer – who then requested a “roll call” vote. No longer a “secret ballot,” the question asked all members present who their floor vote might be for – with Emmer falling far short of the 217 – varying counts are around 20 to 24 members firmly opposed.
One needs 217 to secure the speakership. (RELATED: Republicans Select New House Speaker Nominee)
Now, Emmer needs to go through the process of attempting to get people to change their minds – an uphill battle indeed. While he will attempt to settle the question of 217 before going to the floor – it looks like any plan to hold a vote tonight will not take place if the goal is to complete the speaker's election process.
At this time, Emmer is having an “open microphone” session to openly discuss differences with colleagues who oppose him becoming speaker. In this “open” conference forum, he is explaining his past votes, trying to reconcile differences with opponents and resolve these differences to get the opposition on board to get to 217. A strategy of “as long as it takes” or “as long as it can go” is being used to keep a captive audience in one's presence to convince them to cast their vote in favor. It's unclear how long this will last – or what immediate next steps will follow.
House Republicans are considering a few options. One being to hold in the near term yet another secret ballot to ensure Emmer has the needed 217 votes before going to the floor for a vote. This to obviously avoid another seemingly embarrassing “defeat” of a nominee on the open floor for all to see. However, it's unclear how Emmer gets to 217 with the current roll call vote count unless his open microphone efforts prevail – and given his moderate voting record on spending; support of same sex marriage; immediate support of Biden's election certification and being part of the same McCarthy leadership team. Former Speaker McCarthy endorsed Emmer – and Emmer certainly represents the status quo. (RELATED: The Most Important Quality To Consider In The Next Speaker Of The House)
While the Conference might choose to go to the House floor directly, this seems unlikely after the experience with Jim Jordan's three public votes that emboldened legacy media and Democrat elites to ratchet up criticism that Republicans “cannot govern” – rather than acknowledge this is an internal process of the GOP selecting a speaker who can build confidence amid consensus among party factions. This obviously would change if Emmer secures the 217 in Conference prior to the scheduling of any such vote.
Several Freedom Caucus members have expressed doubts about Emmer's record and positions he has taken that are an anathema to those conservative beliefs and values they so closely hold. Support for Emmer seems tepid, almost as a “let's get this over with” candidate since he possesses the management knowledge of the Capitol, given his current leadership role. It seems highly unlikely conservative members will support Emmer.
In addition, the concept of granting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10) “temporary” legislative powers is once again being floated by some members of the Conference. Some see the day of November 17, the day the current Continuing Resolution (C.R.) runs out – leading to a government shutdown – as a deadline. This idea is being pushed by some circles to ensure that not only is the C.R. passed, but aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and U.S. border security funding is approved by that time.
In the meantime, the speaker's race remains in flux with the outcome unclear – but Emmer is keeping his Conference in closed session, hoping to win over holdouts and go to a floor vote as soon as possible if he secures 217 members. If this fails, the process will begin again.
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