The national polling averages on the GOP presidential nomination show former President Donald Trump maintaining a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor, undeclared candidate and current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The conventional wisdom over the last few weeks is that whatever presidential ambitions DeSantis may have had are dead – killed in no small part by his own stumbling efforts to build a presence beyond his Florida base.
While this is speculation based on hunches about a man who is still not officially in the race, it does leave one thing clear: until proven otherwise, Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination. And none of the other candidates – so far – has demonstrated a plausible path to victory.
Again, this could change once the debates start (the first GOP presidential debate is in August in Milwaukee, Wisc.), and of course, once voters start casting ballots on Jan. 8, 2024 in the Iowa caucuses.
But let's assume Mr. Trump runs the table in the 2024 nomination contest. What does the third Trump presidential candidacy look like?
That is the newest parlor game in political circles. Trump has already sketched the broad outlines of what to expect:
“In 2016, I declared I am your voice,” Trump said in a speech last month at the Conservative Political Action Conference and repeated at his first 2024 campaign rally in Waco, Tex., a few weeks later. “Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”
“Together, we are going to finish what we started,” Trump said at the Waco rally last month. “With you at my side, we will totally obliterate the deep state, we will banish the warmongers from our government, we will drive out the globalists, and we will cast out the communists and Marxists, we will throw off the corrupt political class, we will beat the Democrats, we will rout the fake news media, we will stand up to the RINOs, and we will defeat Joe Biden and every single Democrat.”
As we learned during Trump's first term, take what he says seriously. And if we do, it's reasonable to conclude that the conservatism of old is dead and gone:
“The Reagan limited-government conservatism and emphasis on federalism is being displaced by a new muscular, nationalizing cultural conservatism, with a lot of anger,” said Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution who studies democracy. “One thing we've learned about Trump and authoritarian populists like him is not to dismiss what they're saying as just idle language and toothless roar. We need to take it very seriously.”
Absolutely right. And once we do take it seriously, then Reagan-era conservatism looks not just dead but buried and unmourned. It's replacement – nationalist populism – has none of the optimism of Reagan and even less of its intellectual rigor. It's a kind of political id unleashed from any institutional bounds or political norms.
Can it win? Again, until proven otherwise, when voters start heading to the polls in January to select a Republican nominee, the current assumption is “Yes, it can.”
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Be careful here. Remember where President Trump’s polls were at this time in 2015. DeSantis is still relatively unknown outside Florida.
More important, no one could galvanize the left against the GOP like President Trump could. Loved his policies and leadership, but he will NOT bring in independents and disgruntled Democrats like another candidate could.
I’m not sure I would want to vote for any candidate that can bring in independents and disgruntled Democrats.
Probably not the kind of candidate that would “clean house”, in my opinion.
if you don’t want independents and flipped democrats, then stick with the losing rino”s. they havn’t hit the oval office since ’04, and never again into the far foreseeable future!!!
you do understand, that rino’s didn’t support trump, and he won anyway, because he got more minorities and women and independents and libcoms to flip. and now your saying he’ll only get his core supporters. lower your hatred, and come over to our side, the America First MAGA. USA, USA, USA!!!
Regardless of what the poll takers say about Trump winning the republican nomination, he will never win another election. The hate for Trump runs wide and deep across this country. Him as the republican candidate will not win, yes, even against senile old Joe.
I’ve been a Trump supporter for a long time, but now I am sick of the whole lot of politicians. My vote now is going with Vivek Ramaswamy, a brilliant young man, a true conservative, a fantastic speaker.
Yes, Vivek Ramaswamy, is a brilliant young man but, I doubt enough will vote for a guy with a name so hard to pronounce or fit on a bumper sticker.
As much as I like DeSantis, I want him to remain as a bulwark against woke-ness in FL and as a shining example for the entire nation. Moreover, if he abandons the governorship of FL, WHO will be waiting in the wings? If it’s one of the woke crowd or a fence-sitter as Governor, all of Ron’s fantastic gains in FL may be lost.