PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB): Unregulated prediction market may endanger national security, experts and lawmakers warn. Before and since the Iran war began, though, Polymarket has created war-related markets that users can bet on, raising concerns over the illegality and ethics of those specific bets.
Experts and lawmakers said that while the latter two concerns were front of mind, along with insider trading, the bets could also jeopardize national security. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) took to social media to express his dismay.
“Betting on the lives of our service members, on war, on assassination, and death is morally indefensible,” Levin said. He added that he also had a problem with what many Polymarket bets insinuated: Anonymous traders might be using insider knowledge of massive military and war operations to turn a large profit.
Insider trading wasn’t his only concern, though. “Not only did they profit illegally, but I think they also may have exposed national security information publicly,” Levin said.
Prediction markets represent likelihood people think something will happen, not likelihood they will happen. But if people believe they predict likelihood something will happen, foreign adversaries can take advantage of that dichotomy to thwart U.S. interests and strengthen their own.
“Folks in the military may see movement on a prediction market as intelligence,” one expert said. “And if they do, then that information becomes rife for manipulation, because untraceable actors, including those with nefarious interests, can place money on an outcome that would be convenient for them.” READ MORE at the Military Times.
FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of the top defense news of the last couple of days from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.
THE PDB – Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF:
NATIONAL SECURITY
Ukraine’s success in decimating Russia’s Black Sea Fleet without having Navy of its own is “case alpha” in finding new ways to employ robots across land, sea, and air, U.S. admiral said. But U.S. Navy can’t just copy Ukraine’s homework and apply it to vast, well-observed Pacific, or even Red Sea, where it’s now tasked with enforcing a naval blockade and “getting a lot of unmanned stuff thrown at us.”
HOMELAND SECURITY
Federal agents detain wife of another army member. Sergeant with 27 years of military service – including deployment to Afghanistan – said federal immigration agents arrested her during an appointment at immigration office in El Paso, Texas.
DEFENSE POLITICS
Trump clears path for expanded psychedelic research to treat veterans’ PTSD.
US POWER OVERSEAS
IRAN CEASEFIRE
3 reasons the war between U.S., Israel and Iran is headed for a frozen conflict. With shaky ceasefire in place between U.S., Israel and Iran – and little progress on talks to resolve complex issues at heart of the war – where is this conflict going?
IRAN CAMPAIGN
Army turning to low-cost interceptor drones first tested in Ukraine to counter Iranian-made Shahed drones, aiming to flip economics of air defense that have long favored combatants using quick, disposable technology.
REGIONAL/GLOBAL IMPACT
Israeli army releases map of ‘forward defense line,’ troop positions in southern Lebanon, bringing dozens of villages into its control zone just days after a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect.
Keep plotting. Trump will keep doing. Europe plots Hormuz mission as economic, political pressure mounts.
CHINA THREAT
EUROPEAN DEFENSE
For Germany, plot thickens toward U.S.-optional nuclear deterrent. Trump’s disdain for NATO have eroded trust in credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Europe.
NORTH KOREA THREAT
North Korea Ramps Up Missile Tests as U.S. Reportedly Curbs Intel to Seoul.
North Korea conducts ‘high-precision’ ballistic missile tests, with missiles armed with cluster bombs and fragmentation mines.
SPACE THREATS
Space Force’s 15-year vision calls for more personnel, simulators and survivability. Must expand to accomplish its mission, says service’s new Objective Force plan, 100-page document outlining vision for its structure and doctrine through 2040.
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Who are the candidates running for UN secretary-general?
Australia signals greater defense investment but is urgency still lacking? its revised National Defense Strategy promises increased defense spending and greater self-reliance, but no dramatic change in approach commensurate with changing security situation.
Iran and the indispensable broker: How Pakistan outmaneuvers India on world stage.
US MILITARY
END of PDB
FOR MORE DETAILED, UNCENSORED, INTELLIGENCE, AND ANALYSIS FROM PAUL CRESPO, SUBSCRIBE TO HIS SUBSTACK.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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These Idiots think this is a game, put them on the front line.
As long as NO secure or secret information is given ( and it had better not be done ), let people do this rather stupid crap.
It’s inane, but that’s part of what freedom is about.
Some people just are too stupid as to know better than to do this crap.
For anyone who gives out secure information about any of our military plans or actions … they SHOULD get a nice cell in a maximum security prison … for a long time!
That would be what is called TREASON ( assisting the enemy in time of war )!
I should have added … the Bible clearly teaches against gambling.
That kind of ‘thing’ is betting. Betting is gambling!
It’s considered a sin.
Don’t argue with me … argue with God. He ‘said’ it.
But don’t expect to win that argument! No one has ever done that!