According to prognosticators, Republicans are slightly favored to win the U.S. Senate and heavily favored to win the U.S. House. Yet depending on the percentage of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who vote, GOP gains on Tuesday could range from nonexistent to monumental.
Whether or not we'll see a red ripple or a tsunami remains to be seen.
Should Republican candidates prevail in these districts and states, expect the latter.
Without further ado, here are the races on our radar. Races that could give a decisive read on election night:
New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District
Republican and former Trump administration staffer Karoline Leavitt vs. Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas
Karoline Leavitt — who just turned 25 one month before winning the GOP primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District — consistently trailed Pappas in the polls during September and most of October. But as GOP fortunes appear to have rebounded nationally, bolstered by increasing voter enthusiasm and concern over the economy, crime, etc., so — too — has Leavitt's. An Oct. 28-29 St. Anselm poll puts Leavitt ahead of Pappas by 51% to 45%. St. Anselm is regarded as the most accurate New Hampshire pollster. With a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of EVEN, New Hampshire's 1st District is the quintessential bellwether. Trump won there in 2016, whereas Biden prevailed four years later. If Leavitt jumps out to a decisive victory in Southeast New Hampshire early Tuesday (polls close at 7:00 p.m.), then we'll know the red wave is real.
New Hampshire's U.S. Senate Race
Republican and retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc vs. Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan
Bolduc, 60, served 10 tours of duty in Afghanistan. Over the past month, he's erased Hassan's high single-digit lead in the polls. The latest Trafalgar/Daily Wire poll shows the retired general edging out Hassan, 47% to 45.7%. While the New Hampshire senate race stubbornly remains in RealClearPolitics “Toss Up” column, the site projects Bolduc will pick up the seat for the GOP.
A Hassan defeat would send shockwaves across Washington, as she's previously won support from a majority of New Hampshirites in three statewide races.
Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District
Republican and former mayor of Cranston Allan Fung vs. Democrat Rhode Island General Treasurer Seth Magaziner
Fung, the former mayor of Rhode Island's second-largest city, brought name recognition to a race initially thought to be an easy win for Democrats. Democrats have held the district for the past three decades. However, presidential election results from the year 2000 on show a remarkable trend, Republican candidates steadily accumulating more and more support. Still, Democratic presidential and congressional candidate have always enjoyed majority support. Until now perhaps. According to a recent Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, Fung is leading Magaziner by 45% to 37%, with 13% undecided and 5% opting for an independent candidate. A WPRI-Roger Williams University poll found Fung leading in the race 46% to 40%, with 9% of voters undecided. Leading election prognosticating and commentary website RealClearPolitics (RCP) moved the race from its “Toss Up” to “Leans GOP” category, suggesting that while the battle for the district remains competitive, Fung has a clear advantage.
New York's 25th Congressional District
Republican and former Rochester Police Chief La'Ron Singletary vs. Democrat Rep. Joseph Morelle
In less than a week, this Upstate New York seat (made up of Rochester and its suburbs) went from having a “Likely Dem” rating to being a bona fide “Toss Up” per RCP. Its PVI of D+8 gives Democrats a clear advantage even when the political climate favors the GOP all else being equal. Still, the Republican nominee, former Rochester Police Chief La'Ron Singletary, a Black man, is mounting a serious challenge.
Singletary was fired by Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren (D) after the death of Daniel Prude in police custody. Prude was found by officers in an agitated state walking the streets naked after ingesting PCP. After he begin spitting, officers put a spit hood over Prude and restrained him face down. Prude stopped breathing shortly afterward and despite officers' attempts to give the suspect CPR, he never regained consciousness. No charges were filed against police, but following the release of body camera footage Black Lives Matters protesters demanded accountability by picketing Rochester police headquarters. Mayor Warren dismissed Singletary.
Months later, New York Attorney General Letitia James' office announced that a grand jury declined to charge any of the seven officers involved in Prude's arrest. Around the same time, Mayor Warren resigned after being convicted on campaign finance charges, and Singletary changed his party affiliation to Republican for the first time.
New York's Governor's Race
Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin vs. Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul
Zeldin is running a competitive race against incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (down by 6.2 points according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average). However, the Long Island congressman narrowly leads the Democrat incumbent in a poll taken from Oct. 27-31. Democrat fears, including a recent New York Times article about the New York governor's race being too close for comfort, may be Hochul's saving grace as registered Democrats dwarf the number of Empire State Republicans and independents. Fear is a powerful motivator. There are many unknowns. Will Republican voters turn out in droves on Long Island, the Hudson Valley and elsewhere? Did Hochul already have her “basket of deplorables” moment (when she called Republicans “master manipulators” who lie about New York being unsafe)?
There's one reality both sides, at least tacitly, acknowledge. For Zeldin or any Republican candidate to win statewide, they need to get at least 30% of the vote in New York City.
Virginia's 10th Congressional District
Republican Hung Cao vs. Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton
Northern Virginia has steadily drifted away from the Republican column, a phenomenon that greatly accelerated between 2016-2020. However, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the popular vote here during his successful off-year gubernatorial election. Now, Republicans have a charismatic candidate in Hung Cao a retired Navy Capital with 25 years in special operations.
The 10th district has a PVI of D+6. Cao's hoping that lightning will strike twice here in as many years with the help of near-daily rallies headlined by Gov. Youngkin. If Cao wins, political analysts argue that the red wave will be big enough to inundate deep blue states.
Florida's 23rd Congressional District
Republican Joe Budd vs. Democrat Jared Moskowitz
Budd, a financial advisor, has made Moskowitz, a former Florida state representative, uncomfortable in this Palm Beach-based district, a once unthinkable prospect.
In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain garnered 17% of the vote here. Twelve years later, then-President Donald Trump earned 41% support.
The key for Budd may be the district's large number of Hispanic voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis enjoys support from not only Cuban Americans but Puerto Ricans and South Americans. That may play dividends down the ballot as all signs point to a Republican landslide in the Sunshine State.
Indiana's 1st Congressional District
Republican Jennifer Ruth Green vs. Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan
Indiana's 1st Congressional District, anchored in the industrial city of Gary, has seen nearly 100 years of Democratic Party rule at the congressional level. But recent reports focusing on Green, an Air Force veteran and fundraising prodigy, has breathed new life into the race, which RealClearPolitics (RCP) places in its “Toss Up” category. The Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) recently snubbed Green, who is Black, and opted to support Mrvan. According to the CBC's website, the primary focus of the Congressional Black Caucus is to “using the full Constitutional power, statutory authority, and financial resources of the federal government to ensure that African Americans and other marginalized communities in the United States have the opportunity to achieve the American Dream.”
Green, who would be Congress' first Black female Republican representative if elected, said the CBC's choice not to support her campaign shows the group is more concerned with politics than representation.
Green outraised Mrvan in Q3, bringing in $1.4 million compared to his $940,000. Despite not having elected a Republican to Congress since 1928, former President Donald Trump garnered 45% of the vote here two years ago.
Kansas' Governor's Race
Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt vs. Democrat Gov. Laura Kelly vs. Independent Dennis Pyle
There's genuine concern that Republicans may not be able to take back the governor's mansion in deep-red Kansas. While RealClearPolitics forecasts a GOP pick-up next week, the last two polls ran by The Hill/Emerson of 1,000 likely voters showed the Democrat Kelly up two points over Schmidt. FiveThirtyEight predicts Kelly will retain control of the governor's mansion.
Schmidt has a considerable thorn in his side with Dennis Pyle, a conservative state senator who is stubbornly running as an independent after losing the Republican primary to Schmidt. With surveys showing Pyle with 5% of the vote, he has no chance to win, but he may siphon off enough Republican support to ensure Laura Kelly gets another four years.
Colorado's U.S. Senate Race
Republican Joe O'Dea vs. Democrat Sen. Michael Bennett
Despite Colorado having transitioned into a blue state over the past 15 years, it retains conservative enclaves and in the right environments, can elect Republicans statewide (see the 2014 United States Senate election in Colorado). O'Dea, a Denver-area construction company owner and first-time candidate has made inroads with moderate voters and received the attention of moneyed Republican interests. To boost O'Dea's chances, the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund gave $1.25 million to a pro-O'Dea PAC.
RealClearPolitics recently shifted the race from “Leans Dem” to “Toss Up.” A move that other election forecasters have long argued is warranted. “If there's a sleeper upset potential for Republicans, Colorado is likely to be it,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan political handicapper Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Fox News.
However, Donald Trump has recently railed against the O'Dea, calling him a RINO, after the Colorado Republican said he wouldn't support a third presidential run by the former president.
“President Trump is entitled to his opinion, but I'm my own man, and I'll call it like I see it. Another Biden-Trump election will tear this country apart. DeSantis, Scott, Pompeo or Haley would be better choices. These elections should be focused on Joe Biden's failures supercharged inflation, a broken border, rampant crime, a war on American energy, not a rehash of 2020.”
Utah's U.S. Senate Race
Republican Sen. Mike Lee vs. Independent Evan McMullin
Conservative stalwart Mike Lee is projected to win according to RealClearPolitics, but McMullin has managed to tighten the gap in recent weeks, and Sen. Mitt Romney's refusal to endorse Lee has left him vulnerable. Adding to the mix is former President Donald Trump's lukewarm, at best, standing with Mormon voters. Whether or not they're fed up enough with Trumpian antics to vote for McMullin still seems like a reach.
Nevada's U.S. Senate Race
Republican and former State Attorney General Adam Laxalt vs. Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto
Republicans have long eyed the Nevada Senate race as a key opportunity to win back the Senate as Masto is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection. Especially as Republicans make inroads nationwide with culturally conservative Hispanic voters. An average of the latest public opinion polls in the crucial battleground state show Laxalt with a slight 2.4-point edge over Cortez Masto with hours to go until Election Day. The latest InsiderAdvantage poll from Nov. 4 shows Laxalt has widened his lead to 6-points. Victory on Election Day will most likely come down to cutting into the Democratic Party's advantage in Clark County (Las Vegas) and winning Washoe County (Reno) outright. With John Fetterman still holding on in within the margin of error after his faltering debate performance with Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, the stakes in the western desert could not be higher.
Nevada's Governor's Race
Republican and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo vs. Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak
Lombardo and Sisolak are facing a grueling rematch following their 2018 gubernatorial campaign, where Lombardo lost by four points. This time, in a more favorable political environment for Republicans, Democrats aren't taking any chances. Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign for Nevada's candidates (its entire Democratic congressional delegation is in danger of losing) as the GOP draws tantalizing close to painting the state red. According to the RCP average, Gov. Sisolak is trailing Lombardo by 2.6%. The two most recent polls have Sheriff Lombardo leading the governor 49% to 44% and 50% to 46%.
Oregon's 6th Congressional District
Republican Mike Erickson vs. Democrat state Rep. Andrea Salinas
On paper, Oregon's new 6th district favors Democrats. Democrats had the upper hand in designing it, and its borders, stretching from the state capital of Salem to Portland's suburbs traditionally favor more liberal candidates. However, polls show Democrat state Rep. Andrea Salinas has struggled to gain traction with the electorate.
Internal polls from Erickson's campaign showed the Republican leading Salinas 44% to 39% in early October, according to Cook Political Report. Salinas's campaign has also conducted internal polls showing the Democrat leading 45% to 44%, down from the 3-point lead she held in early September. Cook Political Report noted crime and inflation have been leading factors for Oregon voters, which may result in Oregonians sending a Republican to the governor's mansion for the first time since voters reelected Victor Atiyeh in 1982.
Oregon's Governor's Race
Republican and former Oregon House of Representatives minority leader Christine Drazan vs. Democrat and former Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek vs. Independent Betsy Johnson.
Cook Political Report shifted the race from “Leans Dem” to “Toss Up” last month due in part to Johnson splitting the vote and prominent examples of crime and homelessness in Portland. However, a new poll released on Nov. 1 by Emerson showed Kotek in the lead for the first time since the summer. It's possible that Democrats, who have a 15-point voter registration advantage, have lost their apathy as the prospect of a Drazan victory grew. Or the Emerson poll, showing Kotek with a 5-point lead, could be an outlier. RealClearPolitics still projects Drazan will win this seat, but FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats a 54% chance of victory.
Washington's 8th Congressional District
Republican Matt Larkin vs. Democrat Rep. Kim Schrier
Despite its tendency to support Democratic presidential candidates going all the way back to the 1990s, Washington's 8th District has a history of electing moderate Republicans, like King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, who played an indispensable role in capturing the Green River Killer. Reichert retired after the end of his final term in 2019. The 2018 race for the soon-to-be vacant seat led to the election of Democrat Kim Schrier. However, the implacable economic malaise and soft-on-crime rhetoric is hurting Democrats nationally. Larkin, in contrast, received the endorsements of many pro-police organizations. RealClearPolitics rates the race for Washington's 8th District as “Lean GOP.” However, an August survey by RMG Research showed Schrier with a 4-point lead. FiveThirtyEight gives Schrier a 78% chance of keep the seat in Democrat hands.
Washington's U.S. Senate Race
Republican Tiffany Smiley vs. Democrat Sen. Patty Murray
The financial momentum behind Smiley's campaign is causing Washington State Democrats to sweat. Smiley raised an impressive $6 million in Q3, compared to Murray's haul of $3.6 million. Murray won her first election to the U.S. Senate in 1992 and has been a member of Democratic Party leadership in D.C. since 2001. Although she's had to endure challenging elections before, notably against Dino Rossi in 2010, RCP's polling average shows Smiley potentially giving Murray her closest race. The most recent poll by Trafalgar Group (R) showed Murray leading Smiley by 49% to 48%. Another poll from InsiderAdvantage showed Murray leading 48% to 46%. Both percentages are within the margins or error.
Of course, polling and prognostication only go so far.
Like all of the other races on our list, turnout is key.
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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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