You can tell the national political press is getting restless and bored when it starts to entertain fantasies about fringe candidates making credible bids for a major party presidential nomination. The idea of a Biden-Trump rematch is boring for the press – even the partisan press. Out of this boredom, spring summertime fantasies about fringe candidates making credible moves against the frontrunners. (RELATED: 2024 Candidate Suarez Makes Embarrassing Gaffe During Radio Interview)
Let's be clear: Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the frontrunners for their respective party nominations unless and until voters head to the polls starting in January.
Against this backdrop, the Center for Politics managing editor Kyle Kondik offers a clear-eyed assessment of the only political map that matters come Election Day: Who has the advantage in the Electoral College.
According to Kondik, there are currently a handful of states that can be considered close, or toss-ups in a potential Biden-Trump rematch:
…only seven states were decided by less than three [percentage] points in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This represents the real battlefield: Particularly if the race is a Biden vs. Trump redux, we would be surprised if any other state [switched] from 2020 outside of this group.
Even then, we're not even sure that all of these seven states are truly in doubt. After all, we're starting three of the seven in the leans category (Michigan [Democratic], North Carolina [Republican], and Pennsylvania [Democratic]). (RELATED: Georgia Republicans Furiously Prepare To Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory)
This all underscores the reality that despite the nation being locked in a highly competitive era of presidential elections, the lion's share of the individual states are not competitive at all.
That's been the story of most presidential elections in the 21st century. Republicans have won the popular vote exactly once, in 2004. Every other election has had a clear Democratic victory, both in the popular vote and the Electoral College (Obama in 2008 and 2012, Biden in 2020) and a GOP electoral vote win in 2016 (Trump). Each of those victories rested on the major parties rolling up a base of states, and then fighting over a handful that decided the election.
So it seems to be, once again, in 2024.
Which means that if you live in one of those handful of states that – for now, at least – look pivotal to the 2024 election's outcome…prepare yourself now for the deluge of ads, door knockers, robocalls, and other election year staples.
For everyone else in the 43 or so states that (for now) look to be solidly in the Team Red or Team Blue column…you may not get the same level of attention, but be advised: There's also a number of key House and Senate races to be decided next year. Plus statewide and state legislative races. And local contests. And in many states, ballot measures will be up for a vote, too. (RELATED: Federal Judge Orders Republican Senate Candidate Jim Justice To Hand Over Docs In Lawsuit)
Enjoy the relative calm and even the boredom of the current political season. It's all going to end sooner than you think.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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If you’re a conservative, Norman and most other so called journalists want you to assume it is a waste of time for you to vote. Especially if you live in a blue state. By the way, who decided the color of Democrat leaning states are blue and Republican leaning states are red? Blue signifies calmness and responsibility while red signifies danger and aggression. It should be the other way around.
F J B!!!