White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian Envoy Kirill Dmitriev have drafted a 28-point ceasefire plan for the war in Ukraine, according to Axios.
The proposal would allow Russia to gain additional territory in Eastern Ukraine and would scale back Ukraine’s military capabilities. In exchange, the United States would provide security guarantees intended to deter future Russian aggression toward Ukraine and Europe.
Witkoff and Dmitriev hammered out the draft during a Miami meeting — an audacious plan Axios’ Barak Ravid breaks down in greater detail:
Why it matters: Ukraine and its backers would see that as an enormous concession to Russia. The White House view, according to the U.S. official, is that Ukraine is likely to lose the territory anyways if the war continues and “therefore it is in Ukraine’s interest to reach a deal now.”
Breaking it down: The two thorniest issues in the Ukraine talks up to now have been who will control what territory once the war is over, and how Ukraine can be assured that Russia won’t simply resume the war at a later date.
The 28-point Trump plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk (together referred to as the Donbas), despite Ukraine still controlling around 14.5% of the territory there, per the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.
Despite being under Russian control, the areas in Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw would be considered a demilitarized zone, with Russia not able to position troops there.
The proposal calls for the United States and several other countries to recognize Crimea and the Donbas as lawfully Russian territory, though Ukraine itself would not be required to do so.
In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, existing lines of control would remain largely unchanged, with Russia potentially returning some territory through further negotiation.
Countries such as Qatar and Turkey — whose mediation played a key role in ending the war in Gaza — are reportedly involved in supporting the plan.
Ravid notes that a Ukrainian official said President Zelensky’s national security adviser, Rustem Umerov, was briefed orally on the U.S. proposal.
A planned meeting in Ankara between U.S. officials and Zelensky to discuss the plan was postponed after Zelensky requested that the discussion be expanded to include European partners.
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Watch Zelenskyy mess this up.
I’m sure the residents of ceded areas will be thrilled to either give up their homes (likely with no compensation) or be condemned to Putin’s whims. Giving up territory is not just about land. It’s about disrupting the lives of innocent people to appease a despotic war criminal.
I am fully convinced that Russia is losing the war, and given a bit more time, Putin will be removed. If this dribble goes through, Putin will remain in power, a deadly situation. It is the same situation as letting the administration of Iran remain in place. They are continuing to cause serious problems. The only solution is to settle these situations once and for all. Putin will live to fight another day…and he will. His goal is still to reacquire the former Soviet Union, and then some.