For the average Russian, the Battle for Bakhmut might be the psychological turning point of the war in Ukraine.
Occupying Bakhmut, an important transportation hub, is vital for the Kremlin to shatter Ukrainian defenses in the highly urbanized and difficult-to-capture Donetsk Oblast.
Despite wasting large amounts of ammunition — and soldiers — the largely deserted city remains in Ukrainian hands. Determined assaults led by the Wagner Group, Putin's de facto private army, have failed to smash the front.
And Russia's ability to mount large-scale offensive operations there may have passed.
Experts predict that the battle could have far-reaching political and psychological ramifications, as Newsweek reports:
Though Russia has reportedly secured some marginal gains around Bakhmut in the past few weeks, recent analyses indicate that its prospects of continuing current operations against the city are dim. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, wrote in its Wednesday campaign assessment that the Bakhmut offensive is likely “culminating.”
“U.S. military doctrine defines culmination as the ‘point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense,' and ‘when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause,'” the ISW wrote in the assessment.
It continued: “If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively. Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains.”
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who formerly served as the commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe, told Newsweek that the credibility of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group is at stake in the Bakhmut battle.
Hodges added that a defeat for the Wagner Group would have psychological repercussions throughout Russia.
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Rerun Stalingrad & Kursk from WW2
Russia’s invading army is not doing well in Ukraine. Men and equipment losses have been catastrophic for the Ruskies, and public morale inside Russia is dropping. Russia’s military might and reputation have been significantly reduced. Much of the equipment supplied to troops are cheap fakes, cardboard ballistic body armor, Hasboro-quality plastic helmets, and long expired rations and explosives. Much of the money provided for military equipment is stolen by generals and others, and cheap fakes are substituted in their place.