President Donald Trump’s deportation policies could potentially provide a wage boost to blue collar workers, with some estimates suggesting a 17 percent increase in labor costs, according to a report by The New York Times. The article highlights how a loss of migrant labor due to increased deportations could raise wages in the construction industry, with the economy shifting in favor of working-class Americans.
The report focused on the labor costs for a $2.65 million home, detailing how the builder, Nathan Anderson, relied heavily on immigrant workers for a significant portion of the labor, including laying the foundation. Without this help, Anderson predicted a 17 percent rise in labor costs—an increase of about $116,000 for the project.
The article explores how the absence of low-cost migrant workers could increase wages for American workers. Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, argued that while wealthy buyers might see higher prices for luxury homes, they’d be able to afford them, while the increase in construction wages could significantly benefit working-class Americans, such as bricklayers, concrete workers, and carpenters. Camarota referred to the change as a “redistribution of income from the very top to more middle-income people,” something that, in theory, should resonate with the American left.
This scenario highlights the essential role that immigrant labor plays in the construction industry, especially in areas like Arizona, where the cost of new homes is steep and labor-intensive. However, the article also points out the broader economic consequences of this dependence on cheap immigrant labor, including how deportations could prompt wage increases for American workers while potentially disrupting industries reliant on low-wage, immigrant labor.
According to Stephen Brown, deputy chief economist for North America at Capital Economics, reduced labor supply from deportations would create upward pressure on wages. Experts such as Matt Saunders, vice president of building products research at John Burns Research and Consulting, also anticipate that wage growth in construction will continue into 2025 due to this labor shortage.
Moreover, Camarota warns that mass migration has contributed to wage stagnation in industries like construction, particularly in states like California, where wages have dramatically fallen since the influx of undocumented workers. In the late 1980s, U.S. construction workers in California earned as much as $45 per hour, but by 2018, wages had plummeted to just $11 an hour, partly due to the overabundance of cheap immigrant labor.
The debate over immigration policies and their economic impact continues to evolve, with politicians, economists, and business leaders grappling with the consequences of both increased deportations and long-running low-wage immigration.
Vice President J.D. Vance recently stated that the promise of cheap labor has become “a drug” for too many American businesses, and that reducing immigration could encourage innovation and productivity growth.
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“Camarota referred to the change as a “redistribution of income from the very top to more middle-income people,” something that, in theory, should resonate with the American left.”
I think this Camartota missed that the American Left now seeks to destroy the middle class, and return to the way of the world forever, the 80/20 poor/wealthy and not much at all in the middle.
What else is missing is training for the American worker, we used to have it in high schools, auto mechanics, carpentry, various other building trades, and so on, we need that again badly.