New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) holds a slight lead over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, according to a new national survey that underscores how competitive the next race for the White House could be.
The poll — conducted by The Argument and Verasight and released Tuesday — found Ocasio-Cortez leading Vance 51% to 49%, a difference within the survey’s 2.7-percentage-point margin of error, making the two candidates statistically tied. Respondents were asked how they would vote if the election were held between the New York Democrat and the Republican vice president.
Neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Vance has formally announced a 2028 campaign, but both are widely viewed as potential contenders to lead their respective parties. Ocasio-Cortez, first elected to Congress in 2018, has become one of the most prominent progressive voices in national politics. Vance, a former U.S. senator from Ohio and bestselling author, joined the GOP ticket in 2024 and became vice president after Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Demographic Splits Highlight Each Candidate’s Base
The poll found that Vance maintains a substantial advantage with white voters, leading Ocasio-Cortez 57% to 43% in that demographic. Ocasio-Cortez, however, holds wide leads among voters of color, including 79% support among Black voters and 64% among Hispanic voters. (RELATED: Democrats Win Miami Mayor’s Office After Nearly 30 Years Out Of Power)
Those patterns reflect longstanding partisan alignments: Republicans have consistently performed strongly with white voters in recent presidential contests, while Democrats have relied heavily on support from Black and Hispanic voters, though margins among the latter group have narrowed in recent years.
Standings Within Their Parties
Although Ocasio-Cortez polls competitively in a general election hypothetical, recent Democratic primary surveys show her trailing more established national figures, including former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. This suggests she would face a difficult path in a crowded primary field.
Another recent survey testing a three-way hypothetical between California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Vance, and Ocasio-Cortez found Newsom leading with 36%, with Ocasio-Cortez and Vance tied at 34% each.
On the Republican side, speculation around the 2028 field remains fluid. Asked in October which Republicans might consider a future presidential run, President Donald Trump told reporters, “We have great people… We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco’s [Rubio] great. I think I’m not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”
Trump, who returned to the presidency in 2025 after previously serving from 2017 to 2021, remains subject to the constitutional limits of the 22nd Amendment, which states that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” The provision clearly bars any individual from winning a third term, but its application to Trump’s unique electoral history has become a matter of legal dispute.
Constitutional scholars and legal analysts differ on how the amendment should be interpreted in Trump’s case, particularly whether his two election victories — in 2016 and 2024 — preclude him from pursuing future campaigns. Several lawsuits filed in 2025 seek judicial rulings enforcing the 22nd Amendment against Trump’s eligibility to appear on future ballots. Those cases are pending in federal courts and are expected to draw appeals, potentially reaching the Supreme Court. (RELATED: President Trump’s Legal Battle With The Pulitzer Prize Board Escalates)
Vance Addresses Speculation About His Future
Vice President Vance has attempted to downplay discussions about his potential 2028 ambitions.
In an interview earlier this month with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Vance said, “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”
A Competitive Landscape Ahead
While the 2028 presidential race remains more than three years away, new polling underscores an emerging dynamic: both parties appear headed for a highly competitive contest, with no clear general election front-runner.
Ocasio-Cortez’s narrow lead points to the staying power of progressive Democrats, while Vance’s strong showing suggests Republicans remain largely consolidated following the 2024 election.
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AOC IS A LIBERAL MORON
The company that conducted the poll is who? Was that Argument and Oversight Company (AOC)? What a surprise she leads then.
The point of who did this joke of a poll was my first thought. We are stupid to fall for Poll Crap! They are so easily rigged. I have done them in college and a good poll is hard to achieve. This one really sounds like a mess made by liberals polling nothing but liberals and then since it ran with this crapola saying dumbo moron was winning, I am sure it is just more BS from the lefties. They just do not seem to realize we are way past believing stuff like this and news reports as well. It is really just irritating and offensive. Their liberal audiences may eat this up but gotta say Republicans know this is not true. See ya at the polls dummies to the libs who want to have their violent fits and lie, cheat and steal with no boundaries. Ugh! Just disgusting not believable polls.