A new poll suggests California Democrats could be at risk of an extraordinary political upset in the 2026 governor’s race — one that could shut them out of the general election entirely.
According to a survey commissioned by the California Democratic Party and conducted by Evitarus, Republicans Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and author, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are currently leading the crowded field. Hilton draws 16% support among likely voters, while Bianco follows closely with 14%. (RELATED: California Sheriff Seizes 500K Ballots, Launches Election Probe)
Under California’s “top-two” primary system, only the two highest vote-getters in the June 2 primary — regardless of party — advance to the general election. If Hilton and Bianco maintain their lead, Democrats would fail to place a candidate on the November ballot, effectively guaranteeing a Republican victory in a state long considered a Democratic stronghold.
The Democratic vote remains deeply fractured. Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer are tied at 10 percent each, with several other high-profile Democrats also in the race. In total, eight prominent Democratic candidates are competing, with no clear consolidation in sight.
This dynamic has persisted for months. A December poll conducted by FM3 for the California Issues Forum showed a tighter race, with Hilton holding a narrow lead and Bianco and Swalwell tied at 17%. Since then, Republicans appear to have maintained a unified base while Democratic support has splintered further.
Complicating matters, 24% of voters remain undecided, leaving significant room for late movement. Still, the current trajectory has alarmed party strategists.
NBC News senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur warned that Democrats could “split the vote between their many candidates for California governor, lock themselves out of the top-two election and gift the victory to Republicans,” calling it a potential historic misstep.
The stakes extend well beyond California. The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test of party strength nationwide. Democrats face a challenging Senate map but may benefit from political tailwinds tied to President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, which have historically influenced midterm outcomes. Still, a high-profile loss in California — the nation’s most populous state and a cornerstone of Democratic electoral strength — could signal deeper vulnerabilities within the party’s coalition.
It could also embolden Republicans, who have struggled to compete statewide in California for more than a decade, and provide momentum heading into other competitive gubernatorial and congressional races across the country.
For now, the race remains fluid. But unless Democrats coalesce around a smaller number of candidates, the state’s unusual primary system could turn internal division into a decisive — and potentially self-inflicted — defeat.
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Why would democrats ever vote for a democrat in california… everyone (even the brain-dead) know the candidates on the dem side are certified whacko and just run the state that much farther into the ground.