Cook Political Report Shifts Senate Forecast to Republicans in Final Days Leading to Midterms

In the final days leading up to Election Day, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its Senate forecast toward the GOP.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor, noted that the reason for the forecast change comes because the national environment recently has been seen as more favorable toward Republicans and that issues like the economy and inflation are resonating more with voters now than abortion. (RELATED: Cook Political Report Shifts 10 Biden-Won Districts Toward Republicans)

According to The Hill, Taylor noted that while it's possible Democrats manage to maintain their 50-50 split in the Senate, Republicans are poised to pick up at least three seats on election night.

Among the races where she believed Republicans either had an edge or where Democrats appeared to be hitting a ceiling in support were Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. She noted that in Pennsylvania, there's lingering questions about Fetterman's health after a rocky debate performance last week and said that some Republican-leaning voters who might have previously been skeptical of Oz are appearing to consolidate their support. 

Taylor said they were also moving the Wisconsin Senate race from “toss up” to “lean Republican” because  “the national climate gives the incumbent the slightest of edges, while Republicans have pummeled Barnes on crime. Many national Democratic strategists we talked to closely watching this race concede those attacks have worked, and aren't optimistic given the worsening political environment.”

Taylor noted that in the Nevada Senate race that while Adam Laxalt is seen as more a generic Republican running against Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto public polling indicates she has a ceiling of 46 percent. 

In Georgia, Cook Political Report noted that Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker has a competitive chance at winning the election, especially if it heads to a runoff. However, Taylor was wary to point out that if the race does progress to a runoff that if Americans have a clearer idea of who has control of the Senate that could affect the outcome. (RELATED: Herschel Walker is Leading Among These Key Voters)

“However, we also now see a scenario where — driven by potential large margins of Gov. Brian Kemp in his rematch with Stacey Abrams — Walker could win outright if it is an outstanding night for Republicans,” she noted.

While Republicans are anxiously anticipating election night's results Cook Political Report also shifted a key race toward Democrats. On Thursday, Cook shifted the Arizona Senate race from “toss up” to “leans Democrat.” FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Kelly leading Masters by about 8.5 points. 

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