Trump won this region by a margin of 21 points just three months ago…
In a surprising political shift, Iowa Democrats have secured a significant victory in a recent special election. Despite flying under the national radar, Democrat Mike Zimmer pulled off a shocking win on Jan. 28, 2025, flipping Iowa Senate District 35—where President Donald Trump had dominated by 21 points in 2024. Zimmer defeated Republican candidate Katie Whittington with 51.7% of the vote to Whittington’s 48.1%.
Zimmer’s unexpected victory slightly narrows the GOP majority in the Iowa Senate to 34-16. While it doesn’t shift the balance of power in Des Moines, it has injected fresh momentum into the Hawkeye State’s demoralized Democratic base. Speaking from Washington, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer weighed in on the race, emphasizing the energy behind the win: “I haven’t seen people so aroused in a very, very long time,” he remarked.
The seat became vacant after Republican Chris Cournoyer resigned to accept the position of Iowa’s lieutenant governor in December 2024. Zimmer, previously the president of the Central DeWitt Community School District, will serve the remainder of Cournoyer’s term.
While the results of special elections are often difficult to interpret, history suggests they can foreshadow broader electoral trends. Democratic over-performances in 2017 and 2018 preceded the 2018 midterms, which saw Nancy Pelosi reclaim the House speakership. Similarly, Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022 following the Dobbs decision, setting the stage for a stronger-than-expected showing in that year’s midterm elections.
Despite being the first glimmer of hope for Democrats since Trump’s victory, the upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court election on April 1, 2025, remains the first major test of voter enthusiasm since the 2024 presidential race. At stake? The ideological balance of Wisconsin’s highest court. Liberals currently hold a narrow 4-3 edge, but with Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, a liberal, stepping down, control of the court is up for grabs.
The battle lines are clear: Susan Crawford, a liberal Dane County Circuit Court judge, faces off against Brad Schimel, a conservative Waukesha County judge and former GOP Attorney General. A Crawford win keeps the liberal majority intact, while a Schimel victory flips the court back to conservative control—potentially shifting rulings on abortion rights, union laws and redistricting for years to come.
Both parties—and their deep-pocketed donors—are going all-in. Elon Musk and George Soros are among the high-profile figures pouring money into the race, highlighting the stakes. The 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election already set a record as the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, and this year’s contest is expected to blow past that figure.
Beyond Wisconsin, the outcome could serve as a political bellwether. A liberal win would signal sustained Democratic momentum post-2024, while a conservative victory would show that the right still has the firepower to flip key battlegrounds. Either way, all eyes are on Wisconsin this April.
All in all, the current state of play calls to mind one of Winston Churchill’s famous quips: “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
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The Iowa voters will have to live with what they voted for.