Special elections aren't necessarily indicative of how a party will perform in an upcoming general election. That being said, a trend worth noting has emerged since the Supreme Court released the Dobbs decision that threatens to blunt November's once widely-anticipated red wave.
Most notably, Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro to represent New York's 19th Congressional District, left vacant by Gov. Kathy Hochul's decision to appoint then-Rep. Antonio Delgado to serve as lieutenant governor. The district has an R+3 partisan lean. Ryan leads by some 5,000 votes, or 3.8%, with 95% of the ballots tallied.
Molinaro's campaign focused on inflation and crime, two of the most prominent issues brought up by Republicans on the campaign trail. Ryan's campaign almost focused entirely on abortion rights and playing up claims that the GOP wants to outright ban abortion, not only in the first trimester but in cases of rape and incest as well. Republican-dominated state legislatures in more conservative states have taken similar action.
Ryan's first ad — released one hour after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade — mentioned his military service before addressing abortion.
Yahoo! News reports:
“Freedom includes a women's right to choose,” Ryan asked. “How can we be a free country if the government tries to control women's bodies?” And his yard signs were emblazoned with a simple slogan: “Choice is on the ballot.”
Molinaro's position on abortion rights was moderate by Republican standards, saying that he opposed a federal ban and supported exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the mother.
But Democrats said that Molinaro's deference to the states and refusal to say whether he'd vote to codify abortion rights at the federal level meant he couldn't be trusted, citing his opposition to allowing Medicaid funds to be used for the procedure while serving in the state assembly. They also criticized Molinaro for his appearances with Rep. Elise Stefanik, a New York Republican who's become one of the staunchest supporters of former President Donald Trump in the House.
Republicans attempted to make the race a referendum on Biden while portraying Ryan as a progressive on criminal justice issues. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent more than $1 million on an ad that includes the narrator saying of Ryan: “Hurting cops. Helping criminals.”
The outcome mirrors polling on abortion that shows voters would probably prefer abortion laws to align with most democratic countries that allow for abortions without restrictions up to 20 weeks gestation.
In New York's 23rd Congressional District, Republican Joe Sempolinski is projected to have defeated Max Del Pia. With 97% of the vote in, Sempolinski leads by 53.2% to Della Pia's 47.6%. Although the district has a partisan voter index (PVI) of R+9.
Still, Republicans can point to President Biden's unpopularity, which despite a recent uptick remains low, and the impact of inflation. Voters fear it will rise considerably if the president announces a student loan forgiveness program — as he's expected to today.
What do you think about last night's results? Should they be considered a warning sign for the Republican Party or does the low turnout in special elections make it too tough to draw any firm conclusions?
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