It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
CNN analysts John Berman and Harry Enten discussed recent data indicating that former President Donald Trump may be losing support among a key demographic—non-college-educated white voters—in the final days leading up to the 2024 presidential election. This analysis suggests that Trump’s position as the slight favorite may be less certain than previously believed.
During the segment, Berman referenced the shifting voter dynamics with a immature remark about Trump’s “shrinkage” in support, while Enten presented data illustrating the trend. The analysis focused on Trump’s allegedly declining lead among non-college-educated white voters in key states that formed the so-called Blue Wall. Enten highlighted that Trump carried this demographic by a 33% margin in 2016, 31% in 2020, but now holds a 27% lead.
“This shrinking margin among his core group, which comprises a significant portion of the electorate, could offset major shifts among smaller voter groups. This dynamic is keeping Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, competitive in the race,” Enten claimed.
A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump's base of non-college White voters.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 21, 2024
This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she's holding her own in MI, PA & WI. pic.twitter.com/ww9pnp3DxY
Mediaite continues:
After Berman noted that the cohort had long been one of Trump’s “key demographics,” Enten said that, “We’ve seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump’s direction, so you would think his core group, his base of support, would be doing the same. But in fact, it’s moving a little bit away from him,” before showing that while Trump won the group nationally by 33 points in 2016 and 31 in 2020, polling now indicates that he’s winning them by just 27%.
“Shrinkage, as Donald Trump might say, based on what he’s said the last few days,” commented Berman before asking, “Why could even a small difference with this group matter?”
“Why can a small difference with this group matter? Because look at what percentage of the electorate that they make up. So we can look nationally, right? Look at this: Non-college white voters make up 40% of the electorate. That’s more than college whites at 29%. All other groups, voters of color at 28%,” replied Enten after agreeing enthusiastically with Berman’s word choice. “Why don’t you go to those key Great Lake battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They have outsized import in those Great Lake battleground states. Non-college white voters, look at this, they make up the slim majority of voters at 51%, way more than college whites at 30%, way more than all other voters at 16%. So if you’re seeing movement in the Great Lake battleground states among non-college whites, that could be a very big development, John.”
While CNN’s on-air talent snickered at these shifts, other indicators suggest Trump may be edging ahead. For example, early voting data and many national polls point to encouraging signs for the former president. According to Florida’s Voice, a political blog focused on Florida, as of 2:45 p.m., registered Republicans were leading Democrats in early voting turnout with a +26.6% margin in combined mail-in and in-person ballots.
What's happening in Florida right now is unreal.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024
I thought the GOP peaked.
It's now R+26.6. https://t.co/DXZoGPDwxp
Folks – you can see the full data live now until we get the fancy version fixed.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024
For now – here's the noon update. R+25.5 today in Florida. WOW!
Duval: R+6
Miami-Dade: R+8.8
Pinellas: R+24.4
Hillsborough: R+15.6
Palm Beach: R+18.7
WOW.https://t.co/MqZd9Bpdo5 https://t.co/nUyUwzeQNf pic.twitter.com/QrfupfvxU8
In Pennsylvania, where Monday, Oct. 21, marks the final day to register to vote, Republican voter registration reportedly outpaced that of Democrats by a two-to-one margin over the past week.
🚨 BREAKING: PENNSYLVANIA GOP LANDSLIDE in the last week of voter registration.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024
🔴 Republican: +27,673
🔵 Democratic: +12,722
That's OVER 2-TO-1 for the GOP. And a new record. HOLY SHLIT.@UPTGOP
As the race nears the finish line, both parties remain focused on maximizing turnout, with the outcome still uncertain.
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