A new poll shows Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin leading incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) — for the first time — in New York’s gubernatorial race.
Hochul’s lead was widely believed to be insurmountable mere weeks ago. However, a stubborn crime wave, further evidence of quid pro quo corruption in state politics and building GOP momentum across the country has made the race more competitive. (RELATED: NY Gov. Hochul Hit With Another Scandal as Race Tightens)
After multiple surveys showed Zeldin’s deficit within the margin of error, a poll released over the weekend by co/efficient showed the Long Island Republican leading Hochul by 46% to 45%. Nine percent of respondents said they were undecided.
Zeldin is leading across most of New York, only trailing Hochul in the New York City metropolitan area and, very narrowly, in Western New York’s largest urban centers (Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester).
The Daily Wire reports:
Zeldin’s largest lead is in the Hudson Valley, where he leads 52%-33%. He leads on Long Island, 56%-42%; in the Cap Region, he leads 51%-40%; in Central New York, he leads 47%-44%. Even where he lags, Zeldin is taking critical support away from Hochul. He is in striking distance of Hochul in Western New York, with 45% of the vote to Hochul’s 47%. In New York City, Zeldin is siphoning 36% of the vote away from the Governor, who garnered 53%. [emphasis added]
The other 9% of undecideds could break for Zeldin, considering the dismal favorability ratings for both President Joe Biden and Hochul; Biden has just a 38.3% favorable rating with a 51.3% unfavorable rating; Hochul is faring even worse, with just a 36.5% favorable rating and a 48.6% unfavorable. Zeldin, meanwhile, has a positive favorability; 40.8% are favorable to Zeldin, while just 39.5% are unfavorable.
When it comes to key demographic groups, Zeldin is siphoning surprising amounts of support from Hochul — and leading outright in some cases:
The poll showed that Zeldin is performing well with a number of key demographic groups. Breaking down the poll by race, Zeldin is winning white voters, 48%-44%; Zeldin is also winning Hispanic voters by a significant margin, 54%-36%; and he is winning other races, 52%-33%. He is also stealing 18% of the black vote from Hochul.
Breaking down by registered party, Zeldin is taking nearly a quarter of Democrats, 23%, from Hochul; Zeldin is also winning third-party and independent voters by a wide margin, 59%-28%. Among self-identified party, Zeldin is still taking 10% of Democrats; he is winning independents, 47%-38%; and is leading with third parties, 33%-31%.
The last Republican to occupy the governor’s mansion in Albany was George Pataki, who won reelection for a third and final term in 2002.
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We’ll see.