Prominent nonpartisan election prognosticator Cook Political Report has shifted its ratings in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada toward Kamala Harris.
All three states had been considered “lean Republican” in early July, while President Biden was still in the race and falling further behind Trump, marking the recent shift as especially notable.
“For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden's age to Trump's liabilities,” Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote in a post explaining the decision.
“In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump's to lose to a much more competitive contest,” she continued.
Cook pointed to the polling averages for the six main swing states as calculated by FiveThirtyEight to demonstrate how the race has changed. Trump's largest lead had been in Georgia, where he led by 5.9 points in average, but it's now down to just a 1-point edge. In Arizona, his prior lead of 5.5 points is currently 1.9.
Republicans and some Democrat strategists have warned that Harris is in a honeymoon period following her entry into the race that will not last nor fundamentally shift the race.
“Republicans argue that Harris is on a sugar high that will be hard to sustain for more than 90 straight days, especially once the conversation turns away from the things Harris can control (a VP roll-out and the DNC programming), to things she can't (perceptions about the state of inflation and frustration with the status quo),” Walter said, noting Republicans have stepped up attacks on Harris recently.
“Bottom line: Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss Up,” she concluded.
The shift comes after another handicapper, Sabato's Crystal Ball, moved its rating of Minnesota, New Hampshire and Georgia toward Harris.
“In the few weeks that Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as Democrats' standard bearer, she has ‘reset' the electoral map to some degree, as she has polled better than President Biden was performing before he ended his campaign,” a post explaining the change states.
The post adds that Harris has at least managed to “stop the bleeding” since Biden's poor debate performance against Trump in late June. It says multiple national polling aggregators place her at least slightly ahead of Trump in a match-up, while Biden was generally trailing the former president before he dropped out.
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