As the dust settles on the Nov. 7 elections, narratives are emerging about what the results may tell us about 2024, the presidential race, and more.
It's safe to put most of the down as molten hot takes that aren't likely to survive the 2024 presidential primaries. In this camp: that there are glimmers of hope for Joe Biden. Nothing in the results shows Mr. Biden has put the issues confronting his candidacy to rest. If anything, there's more data – this time from a CNN poll – showing Biden trailing Trump. And among the biggest knocks on the incumbent: voters think he's just too old.
But other emerging narratives are likely to have staying power. Among those: Republicans have an abortion problem, particularly with suburban women. That problem was on display not just in Ohio, where voters approved an amendment guaranteeing the right to abortion in the state constitution; it showed up in the Virginia suburbs as well.
Virginia Democrats reclaimed control of the House of Delegates and retained their Senate majority. A key to their success? Their candidates ran hard and consistently on abortion. It was enough to send the GOP packing. But not quite enough to give Democrats resounding, veto-proof majorities. The bottom line: in the population centers where the most votes are cast and the most legislative districts are located, voters are mixed on abortion. They don't favor extremes on either side of the issue.
That would appear to include GOP donor class heartthrob Glenn Youngkin's supposedly sensible proposal for an abortion ban (with a few exceptions) after 15 weeks. Suburban voters weren't buying it. And if Republicans still believe in a marketplace of ideas…they should know by now that on abortion, the marketplace isn't buying what the GOP is selling.
And speaking of items that will sit on the idea shelf indefinitely…let's add to that all the “Youngkin for President” merch that some Republican grandees were stockpiling. Youngkin spent millions trying to help Republicans take control of both houses of the General Assembly. Instead, Republicans failed to take the Senate and lost their narrow House majority. A stunning reversal for Youngkin, who instead of toying with a national candidacy, now faces life as a lame duck.
But before we leave Virginia, let's remember that the state's incoming Democratic majorities are very likely to overplay the narrow victories they won, and quickly overreach on policy. In other words, they will find new and creative ways not only to keep Republicans in the game, but position them for a return to majority status in 2025.
As for what else Nov. 7 means for 2024…we won't have to wait long. The Iowa caucuses are Jan. 15, and the New Hampshire primary is Jan. 23.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
