Republican Elites Look To ‘Lifeboat’ That Isn’t Ready

Despite former President Donald Trump's still-formidable polling advantage over the rest of the GOP presidential field, the prospect of Trump leading the party into the 2024 general election still leaves some Republicans uneasy. To the point where they are looking for a so-called” lifeboat” candidate.

For months, that lifeboat was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But as Mr. DeSantis struggles to gain his footing on the national stage, the search has resumed. And the new lifeboat is Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

I've written about this phenomenon before, and stick by my earlier assessment: Youngkin undoubtedly has higher ambitions. But his legacy defining task is coming this November, as Virginia voters head to the polls to decide control of the general assembly. Currently, the GOP has a narrow advantage in the House of Delegates, while Democrats control the Senate. Youngkin's task: preserve, and in a best-case scenario, expand, GOP control of the House and take control of the Senate.

Such an outcome would cement Youngkin's reputation as the man who brought Virginia Republicans back from the dead and diverted them away from the destructive policies and personalities of the previous decade.

That would be a monumental achievement, and one that would set up Youngkin for a national run in 2028, or before that, a Senate match-up with incumbent Mark Warner in 2026.

Those pining for Youngkin to get in this year, and save the GOP from a Trump rerun they believe will end in electoral catastrophe need to grasp that. Even more, if it becomes clear Youngkin has his eyes on a 2024 presidential run, it will undermine his efforts this year to help his party take full control of state government.

Virginia voters are notoriously hostile to the idea of incumbents running for a different, higher office. They prefer to have their elected officials close at hand – making the rounds locally, addressing concerns, shaking hands, generally looking and acting like the job they have now is the only one that matters.

But there's an even more practical concern that works against the Youngkin “lifeboat” candidacy: the pressing need for a candidate to get on the ballot in as many caucus and primary states as possible.

On that score, any would-be lifeboat candidate needs to get busy right now to make the ballot in places like Alabama, where candidates need to gather signatures from every congressional district and file them by Nov. 10 in order to make the ballot.

The more difficult task is in Virginia, where candidates have to gather 5,000 signatures (including 200 signatures from each of the state's 11 congressional districts) and file them by Dec. 14.

And even if one can overcome all the statewide paper work, there's still the issue of winning delegates. And I hate to break this to those looking for the lifeboats, but Team Trump changed how that process works way back in 2020 (in order to block would-be challengers to his reelection effort that year). As Vox notes:

In advance of the 2020 cycle, the Republican primary rules were changed extensively when the Trump campaign and the RNC worked state by state to make it tougher for gadfly candidates to challenge Trump's nomination. In a number of states, the threshold needed for candidates to earn delegates was significantly increased. For example, in Massachusetts in 2016, a candidate only needed to win 5 percent of the vote statewide in order to earn delegates.

And that's not all:

…the rules for the Republican primary are in the process of being set in the coming weeks and months. Although states have until October 1 to formally submit their delegate selection plans to the RNC, most of them will not wait until the last minute. This means that if campaigns aren't active now and putting in the necessary resources to have influence, the state rules will be set without them.

On that count, Trump is already well, if not prohibitively, ahead of everyone else. So much for the lifeboats.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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