More polling shows more of what is becoming the dominant narrative of the GOP presidential nomination race – it’s Trump’s to lose.
But well away from the horse race data is a far more interesting, if underreported, story that could have a dramatic effect on the race’s outcome: how Trump is winning the fight for how convention delegates are awarded.
The Washington Post has a good write-up of the most recent state party to change its delegate rules in a way that should favor Mr. Trump:
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign notched a major victory Saturday when members of the California Republican executive committee voted to parcel out convention delegates based on the statewide vote next year — doing away with the state’s longtime system of awarding them by congressional district, which had been perceived as a more level playing field for lower-tiered candidates.
The new rules give Trump a shot at clinching all of the state’s 169 delegates — more than any other state — while at the same time making it harder for a challenger like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to make it a two-person race.
The dramatic shift in the rules, which came during a closed-door meeting Saturday in Irvine, was denounced as an underhanded political maneuver by allies of DeSantis, Trump’s leading opponent for the nomination, who tried to prevent the change and are now reconsidering their investments in the state.
Of course, the other campaigns are upset. Any state rules change that reduces the likelihood they can pick up delegates for the convention makes their path to the nomination that much more difficult.
What is particularly interesting about the California change is the reaction it got from a pro-DeSantis PAC:
“Smoke-filled backrooms do not reflect the will of or benefit voters in any state. Yet across the country games are afoot to enhance the potential outcome of primary elections for one former president who half of the Republican electorate no longer wants as the party leader,” Ken Cuccinelli, founder of the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, said in a statement. “Even with these asinine primary rules changes, we remain confident Governor DeSantis will become the Republican nominee and 47th president of the United States.”
It’s rich that Cuccinelli, the one-time Virginia attorney general, would protest so loudly about the way nominees are chosen considering his own political history.
In 2012, Cuccinelli backers worked overtime at local GOP meetings to take control of the state party in advance of the 2013 gubernatorial election. At the time, party leaders, and then-incumbent Gov. Bob McDonnell, favored a statewide primary to choose the gubernatorial nominee. Cuccinelli & Co. favored conventions restricted to just the party faithful. The thinking – a convention increased the odds Cuccinelli would win.
The irony: state party nominating conventions are fertile grounds for the very “backroom” deals and other shady shenanigans Cuccinelli decries in the California rules change.
The result: Cuccinelli & Co. took over the party, changed the nomination method from a primary to a convention, and Cuccinelli won the nomination unopposed.
That detour through history shows that rules changes to nomination processes are enormously important. They bear watching closely because they tell us how the rewards of a victory will be distributed – and whether there is anything left for the also-rans.
It’s also worth noting the virulence of the rhetoric of those who are on the losing side of rules changes. As political pros, they know just how important rules changes are. Some of them because they have directly benefitted from such changes in the past.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Great observation – isn’t is always the case that “It’s O.K. for me, but not for thee” ?
Political parties follow the Golden Rule:
The guy with the gold makes the rules.