Monday, April 29, 2024

Trump Remains Favored to Win the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary

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The inevitable has happened: Former President has declared his candidacy for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. The serial wailing and gnashing of teeth from assorted Republican corners preceded, accompanied and followed the announcement.

How all that plays out inside the GOP – which has been an idea-free shadow of its former self for more than a decade – is an open question. And it's also one that, for all the drama that will happen along the way, won't produce substantive, effective, humane, liberty-friendly policies and ideas.

Which is a great loss to the nation, which needs at least one of its major political parties not to be rooted in grievance, envy, revanchism and worse.

Looking purely at the tactics of Trump's announcement, though, is something else. Trump's declaration gives him first-mover advantage on the rest of the would-be Republican field (in addition to his role as the party's most recent White House occupant and his still formidable fundraising operations).

Trump, then, is the presumptive frontrunner for the nomination – make no mistake about it. The other candidates bandied about as Trump challengers – Gov. , ex-Secretary of State , former U.N. Ambassador and so on – all have White House dreams. Can they contend with Trump? On any given primary Election Day, sure they can. There's plenty of time between now and the caucuses for the political landscape to set.

As for the likely contenders…DeSantis has shown he can raise money and command elite GOP support (not to mention having a powerful organization in one of the biggest state's in the country). On paper, he's a genuine threat to Trump's own dreams of becoming only the second president in history (the other being Democrat Grover Cleveland) to serve two non-consecutive terms.

But before the chattering class gets too far over its skis…let's not forget that other very popular Florida governor who had a powerful state, national – and family – organization as well as a huge war chest as he entered the GOP presidential field in 2016. 

For those who've forgotten, that was Jeb Bush, whose advantages were all on paper, not on the ground.

Does this mean the other hopefuls will stand aside and allow a Trump coronation? Hardly. Ambition at this level of is something few of us can understand. It's narcissism on steroids. 

There will be a fight for the GOP nomination. It will get expensive. It will – inevitably – get ugly. And barring hard evidence to the contrary – meaning actual votes in the GOP presidential primaries – Trump holds the advantage.

Let's see how long he keeps it.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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Norman Leahy
Norman Leahy
Norman Leahy has written about national and Virginia politics for more than 30 years with outlets ranging from The Washington Post to BearingDrift.com. A consulting writer, editor, recovering think tank executive and campaign operative, Norman lives in Virginia.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Sorry guys. I voted for Trump twice. And loved his leadership and policies. But he continually breaks the 11th commandment of Ronald Reagan. He talks down other Republicans in public. And his timing of the announcement is terrible and selfish as we NEED Hershal Walker to win in Georgia. He should be the king-maker and not the king.

    Should DeSantis run, I will vote for him in the primary. There are others I’d like to see take a shot rather than endure the drama again.

    There are many reasons he should not run, but among them:

    • He was a surprise and no one took him seriously in 2016 and he got free publicity. That won’t happen again.
    • On day 1, he will be a lame duck.
    • He galvanizes the left and Never-Trumpers unlike anyone else.
    • His entire Presidency would be replete with impeachments, investigations, etc distracting from doing the people’s work.

    In my opinion, he needs to pull back, say he’s going to defend himself, and support the party. He’s lost a lot of goodwill.

    I propose an under-the-table deal with the Democrats. Leave Trump and his family alone, and we will leave Joe and Hunter alone.

    • If Trump is not the presidential primary winner don’t know if his ego would let him back the winner. Would he ask his supporters for a write-in vote and guarantee a Dem win?

    • If we all voted on what a candidate says, then there is no reason to support any candidate. Trump showed us who he was and what he could do under fire. He changed the landscape and the party. Why would any patriot want not to support him? Tried and True. Name calling and political prosecution, two things a politician must endure. I too agree that he needs to revise how he attacks and moderate his advances with humor and wit.

  2. I guess you would have to say he is the front runner since he is the only one who has announced that he is running.

  3. I don’get it. I cannot recall that Gov. Ron DeSantis hinted at, much less announced his candidacy for President (?). .Also, I doubt that Trump bad-mouthed other candidates as badly as the corrupt media swill hyped it up that he did.

  4. Look what your taxes for 2022 are going to be. Trump is gone and we just have Biden and his 87k IRS Agents. I’ll take Trump any day.

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