ANALYSIS – This small eastern city is the key to Russia achieving its stated goal of seizing the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk by the spring. Capturing Bakhmut will allow them to cut Ukrainian supply lines in Donetsk.
These are Ukrainian regions Russia purportedly annexed in September and claims as Russian territory.
It would also signal a modest but much-needed Russian victory as we reach the first anniversary of the Russian invasion on February 24.
TIME notes:
Bakhmut “has become this rallying cry in the Russian information space,” says Karolina Hird, a Russia analyst at the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War, noting that the small city represents one of the few places where its forces have been making tangible gains.
Regular Russian troops, along with mercenaries from the Wagner Group, have the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in a vise, almost encircling it as they attack from five directions.
According to the Ukrainian military, the Russians have reached one of the main highways into the city, and there is house-to-house fighting in some areas.
A Russian special forces commander said Wednesday that Russian troops now occupy several streets.
Russian forces have been trying to claim the eastern Donetsk city of Bakhmut for more than six months, relying on masses of troops to try to overrun Ukrainian positions.
The tactic has allowed Russia to make incremental gains in recent weeks and to slowly tighten a noose around the city, but at a cost of hundreds of dead and wounded soldiers each day, The New York Times said.
Much of the city has been reduced to “burnt ruins” as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described it during one of his nightly addresses in December.
And keeping it is not as important to Ukraine as it is to Russia.
According to TIME, Yehor Cherniev, a Ukrainian lawmaker and head of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO parliamentary assembly, says that although Bakhmut “is not of strategic importance” to Kyiv, they will nonetheless “try to hold it as long as possible.”
“We are gradually grinding down the most combat-ready units of the Russians,” says Cherniev. “Regardless of the future fate of Bakhmut, we managed to win precious time. In our next counter-offensive campaign, we will return much more.”
But ultimately, this calculation and the high cost in lives and destruction may force Ukraine into a quandary. Fight or retreat?
CNBC reports that the Ukrainians seem willing to fight, for now, even as Russian shows an equal willingness to take the city:
…Kyiv is vowing to fight on for now, with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy stating last week that “nobody will give away Bakhmut. We will fight for as long as we can. We consider Bakhmut our fortress.”
Russia is meanwhile throwing all the manpower and artillery it can muster at Bakhmut, as it looks to present a victory to the Russian public ahead of the first anniversary of the Moscow-styled “special military operation” on Feb. 24.
“The Russians are desperate to advance ahead of the one year anniversary of this aggression. They are really using everything they have in and around Bakhmut,” Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's defense ministry, told CNBC Wednesday.
However, a complete victory for Russia in Bakhmut is still not guaranteed. And even if Russia seizes it, as TIME adds:
The fall of Bakhmut would be a modest tactical victory for Russia. But it would also be a pyrrhic one, given all the resources used. Indeed, Western officials reportedly estimate that the number of Russian troops who have been killed or wounded in the war so far is nearing 200,000, up from estimates of just 80,000 in August.
And this may have been part of Ukraine's strategy all along.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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