ANALYSIS – Or are Ukrainians just that good now? This weekend Russia lost four combat aircraft in one day, all inside its own borders near northeast Ukraine.
The losses on Saturday included two Mi-8 Hip helicopters, a Su-34 Fullback strike fighter, and a Su-35 Flanker-E.
There were nine crew onboard the four aircraft and no survivors. It is one of the biggest single-day aerial losses Russia has suffered since at least March of last year.
Kremlin sources initially claimed that the Ukrainian Air Force “ambushed” the Russian aircraft somehow in Russian airspace.
Kommersant reported both the Su-34 and Su-35 were preparing to fire missiles at targets just inside Ukraine, and the two Mi-8 helicopters accompanying them when both the jets and the helicopters took hits from Ukrainian “air-to-air missiles.”
The Russian outlet added that the four aircraft were downed “almost simultaneously.”
If so, this would mean Ukrainian forces have dramatically upped their air-to-air combat game, and their jets are able to operate undetected inside Russia’s dense air defense shield – or from across the border.
It’s also possible that Ukrainian air defense systems took them down from their own side.
But others, including the head of Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, believe they were downed by Russian air defense forces which are on a hair trigger in that region.
Prigozhin, a former ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who now appears to be somewhat of a rival, hinted on Sunday that Putin’s own forces might have shot down the aircraft.
In a post to his Telegram channel, Prigozhin noted no Ukrainian air defenses could be located at the center of the 12-mile radius of the four downed aircraft.
Newsweek quoted him as saying:
Four planes, if you draw a circle in the places of their fall, it turns out that this circle has a diameter (and all of them lie exactly in a circle) of 40 kilometers. That is, the radius of the circle is 20 kilometers. Now go on the Internet and see what kind of anti-aircraft weapon could be in the center of this circle, and then build your own versions. I do not know.
A Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson also said on Sunday that Russia’s own air defenses may be responsible for the downed aircraft.
The helicopters were likely there to provide support and to rescue the ‘Su’ aircrews if they were shot down.
Some observers have claimed that at least one, or maybe both, Mi-8s shot down were rare electronic warfare (EW) variants, the Mi-8MTPR-1 designed to suppress enemy air defenses. Russia reportedly only has about twenty of these rare birds.
This would mean the Russians may have lost a tenth of their helicopter EW fleet in just one day.
Meanwhile, Tyler Rogoway at The Drive reports that “Russian authorities have since begun hunts for ‘saboteurs’ involved in the shootdowns, potentially partisans or Ukrainian special forces armed with man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).”
While it is possible that Ukrainian special forces and/or partisans managed to ambush these aircraft with MANPADS, it’s still very difficult to coordinate a near-simultaneous assault on four different aircraft, including two helicopters and two jets.
But don’t rule out that scenario. With U.S. and NATO help, Ukrainian capabilities are increasing daily.
Either way, Rogoway adds: “The war has increasingly come to Bryansk Oblast [in Russia], be that the bizarre cross-border raid in March or a huge increase in Ukrainian drone attacks.”
How Putin will react to worsening cross-border attacks, or internal sabotage, is the big question.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Poor IFF systems , training used??
Good show Russia
Perhaps aviation and vodka don’t mix.