Is Xi Jinping On The Way Out In China?

This could be huge for China and the world. As we focus on the pomp and power of China’s recent spectacles, we may be missing a major development occurring right under our noses. Even as he presided over China’s largest military parade ever, Xi Jinping may be on the way out as China’s nearly totalitarian leader.

While China’s military power grows exponentially, its economy is in big trouble.

This could portend huge changes in China and its approach to the world, which the U.S. under President Trump should be ready for. And there are many indicators of this monumental change. Some of this has already happened.

As former U.S. diplomat Gregory Slayton writes in the New York Post:

Over the past few months, unprecedented developments point to the potential, and potentially imminent, fall of China’s “Chairman of Everything” Xi Jinping. Chinese Communist Party elders — including Hu Jintao, Xi’s immediate predecessor, whom Xi humiliated at the 20th Party Congress in 2022 — are now running things behind the scenes.

Xi is in poor health and likely to retire at the CCP Plenary Session this August or take a purely ceremonial position.

Xi’s downfall has been rumored before. But never have we seen the recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists.

[General] Zhang Youxia, with whom Xi had a major falling out after helping Xi secure an unprecedented third five-year term, is now the de facto leader of the PLA [People’s Liberation Army].

But there are many other indicators of Xi’s political decline noted by Slayton too:

·        Xi’s personal protective detail was recently halved.

·        Xi’s mausoleum built to honor his father, larger than those of either Mao or Deng, was ‘un-named’ last month.

·        Xi disappeared without explanation for two weeks in May-June as foreign leaders were hosted in Beijing by other CCP figures.

·        China’s People’s Daily, which until recently ran fawning front-page stories on Xi daily, has failed to mention him for a while.

·        following his recent call with President Trump, Chinese state media, including state TV, referred to Xi without any formal title at all. This has never happened before.

·        Following his recent call with President Trump, Chinese state media, including state TV, referred to Xi without any formal title at all. This has never happened before.

·        Professors at some of China’s most prestigious universities have published articles directly criticizing Xi, which was unthinkable previously.

Gen. Zhang Youxia, the senior vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), has also reportedly been given authority by CCP elders, at their secretive annual meeting at Beidaihe resort, to undertake military action while cutting Xi from the chain of command.

Australian foreign policy expert Gregory argues in The Epoch Times that:

It is probable that the final announcement of the transfer of power, perhaps given in softer political terms, would be announced at the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP Central Committee in October. The plan, according to sources at the Beidaihe gathering, was to announce Xi’s voluntary retirement due to health concerns.

So, who might replace Xi, and what might this mean?

Slayton believes that “[PLA commander] Zhang Youxia and CCP elders have chosen Wang Yang, whom Deng Xiaoping lifted out of obscurity and who served as a successful technocrat until his forced retirement in 2023, to be the next CCP chairman.”

Slayton adds that Yang “is known as a soft-spoken reformer who supports more free-market policies, more decentralized decision making, and a much less confrontational foreign policy.” Russia, North Korea, and Iran could be devastated by this momentous change.

Copley notes that:

…the question becomes one about the future of the CCP and how it manages the People’s Republic of China during a turbulent period of economic collapse. Will the CCP become more ideological to preserve its legitimacy, while at the same time becoming more open to market forces? How long can it survive, even as foreign powers, including the United States, attempt to stabilize the situation to minimize global economic consequences?

Still, despite all the indicators, Xi’s demise is not totally guaranteed. As Copley explains, Xi still has some powerful supporters:

Some…such as Premier Li Qiang, Cai Qi (first-ranked member of the Secretariat of the Chinese Communist Party, fifth-ranked member of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, and the director of the CCP General Office), and first-ranked Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang, are being closely watched to determine whether they could support a last-minute resurgence by Xi to seize back power. The remaining supporters of Xi in these high-level positions were appointed by him and essentially have nowhere to go when he loses power.

So, there will still be a chance for a pro-Xi counter coup to keep him in power. And things could get messy.

As for how all this impacts the United States, utimately, Slayton argues, if this momentous transition in China is handled correctly, “Trump can win the Cold War with China without firing a shot.”

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