Highly-classified documents leaked out of the Pentagon reveal how vulnerable Ukraine's air defense system is and that if it fails due to a lack of munitions, the Russian Air Force could turn the tide of the war.
What does Kyiv need to keep Moscow's numerical advantage in the air at bay? Weapons and ammo —and a lot more of it. Otherwise, the Kremlin may decide it's worth unleashing its fleet of fighters and bombers from bases in Kursk and Crimea.
The possibility of Ukrainian air defenses fracturing comes as incessant Russian drone and missile attacks have weakened them.
The New York Times explains:
In the early days of the invasion, Russian aircraft flew hundreds of combat flights to bomb targets in Ukraine. But a combination of quick thinking by Ukrainian commanders and poor intelligence and bad aim by Russian pilots left many of Ukraine's warplanes and air defenses intact, preventing Moscow from gaining control of the skies above the battlefield and forcing Russia to keep much of its air force out of the fight.
Now Pentagon officials are worried that Moscow's barrage of attacks from afar is draining Ukraine's stores of the missiles it uses to defend itself. And a Pentagon assessment from late February contained in the trove of leaked documents that were discovered circulating online last week paints an even grimmer picture.
Stocks of missiles for Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which make up 89 percent of Ukraine's protection against most fighter aircraft and some bombers, were projected to be fully depleted by May 3 and mid-April, according to one of the leaked documents. The document, which was issued on Feb. 28, based the assessment on consumption rates at the time. It is not clear if those rates have changed.
The relatively new intelligence assessments suggest they paint a highly accurate picture of Ukraine's current situation and elevated risk to strategic military targets in the country.
If Russian fourth- and fifth-generation fighters gain air supremacy over Ukraine, it would dramatically weaken Ukraine's ability to wage warfare on the ground.
The Biden administration announced it would send ground-based interceptors and other munitions as part of the latest aid package to Ukraine last week. Whether that will be enough depends on a variety of factors.
The documents also revealed how the U.S. spies on its adversaries and allies, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Others show how U.S. intelligence-gathering methods have infiltrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and Putin's vaunted Wagner Group.
Meanwhile, the Department of Defense has launched an “interagency effort” to combat the leaks, according to Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh.
Look no further then the WH.
I am sure Macron / France will pony up munitions along with Germany.
Who leaked docs: DoD, State Dept,WH, DNC RNC??