Unlikely Country Put on War Footing

Japan hasn’t waged war since 1945. Eighty years after its role as one of the two leading Axis powers the World War II, the island nation is keeping a close eye on China’s saber-rattling.

The unprecedented threat to Taiwan from Beijing has Toyko seriously considering the prospect of facing off militarily against its chief rival in the Asia-Pacific region.

As the Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reports:

If China were to attack Taiwan, it wouldn’t just have to face a hostile superpower. It would also likely have to confront its longstanding regional rival, Japan. For centuries, Japan and China have vied for hegemony in East Asia; at times, they have threatened each other’s survival. Today, as I found from three days of meetings with Japanese officials and analysts in Tokyo, the threat of Chinese aggression is producing a quiet revolution in Japanese statecraft — and pushing the nation to get ready for a fight.

For the US, China is a dangerous but distant challenge. For Japan, China is the existential danger next door. Years before American leaders were proclaiming the return of great-power rivalry, Japanese officials were warning that Beijing was up to no good. As China’s capabilities become more formidable and its conduct in the Taiwan Strait more menacing, Tokyo’s concerns grew more acute.

Recent surveys show that 90% of the Japanese public believe their leaders should do more to prepare for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Amble evidence, most recently from the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, suggests that Chinese President Xi Jinping is willing to risk potentially catastrophic losses in a seaborne invasion.

A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have dire consequences for Japan, as Asharq Al-Awsat notes:

If Taiwan fell, the islands at the far southwestern end of the Japanese archipelago might become indefensible. China could constrict Japan’s vital trade routes, increase the pressure around the disputed Senkaku Islands, and otherwise coerce its historic rival.

This is why the Tokyo government has stated — as strongly as it can, given Japan’s post-1945 aversion to the use of force — that it would not stand by while Taiwan was subjugated. Already a serious regional military power, Japan is moving rapidly to strengthen its capabilities for deterrence and defense.

Japan has already authorized a two-fold spending increase for its Self-Defense Forces. It is also turning outlying islands into fortresses and in the process of purchasing American cruise missiles.

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