The latest New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College survey of battleground states is catastrophic for President Joe Biden and his campaign, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.
Among registered voters in six battleground states, Donald Trump leads Biden in five. When broken down geographically, it appears that the incumbent president may have only one path to 270 electoral votes – through the traditionally Democratic Great Lake states.
The Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia are an “absolute disaster.” Trump’s largest margin – a whopping 13 points in Nevada – sparked expressions of shock from Enten, who correctly noted that John Kerry was the last Democratic nominee for president to lose the Silver State way back in 2004. (RELATED: Dem Blames Biden’s Approval Blues On Minority Voters’ Inability To Understand ‘How Any Of This Works’)
The results show Trump with a nine-point edge in Georgia, six points in Arizona, three points in Pennsylvania, one point in Wisconsin and Biden leading by one in Michigan.
They reiterate a growing dissatisfaction among young, Hispanic and Black voters, who expressed concerns about a variety of issues – Biden’s economic policies most notably.
The New York Times’ Nate Cohn continues:
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.
The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israel’s war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president’s standing. While Mr. Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls.
What is clear is the discontent expressed by young, Hispanic and Black voters. Results suggest that both Biden and Trump are neck and neck with 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanics. Moreover, Trump is winning over 20% of Black voters. The prevailing sense that Biden would do little to change the status quo has prompted a relatively high number of previously reliable voters to move away from Biden’s camp. (RELATED: A Momentous Political Realignment For 2024?)
A majority of swing voters prefer the return to normalcy Biden’s 2020 campaign promised, a knock on the tone and temperament of the Trump era. Style points aside – almost 70% of the electorate are unhappy with the current state of the country’s political and economic systems. Swing voters who are relatively affluent and less affected by the economy and cost of living are more likely to be concerned by Trump’s history of denying election results.
The survey includes responses from 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from April 28 to May 9. The collective margin of error is 1.8 percentage points.
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Patrick Houck is an avid political enthusiast based out of the Washington, D.C., metro area. His expertise is in campaigns and the use of targeted messaging to persuade voters. When not combing through the latest news, you can find him enjoying the company of family and friends or pursuing his love of photography.
