Election forecaster Larry J. Sabato just moved two key Senate races towards Democrats in his latest Crystal Ball 2022 prediction, another troubling sign for the GOP as the November elections quickly approach.
The decision to shift the Arizona and Pennsylvania Senate races from the “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic” category was triggered by an “improving political climate” for Democrats and also acknowledges specific weaknesses identified in each Republican nominee.
In Arizona, Crystal Ball shifted the race between Trump-endorsed Blake Masters (R) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D) towards Kelly, citing the large fundraising disparity between the two campaigns.
According to The Hill:
“Do we think Kelly would win by high single digits, as some polls suggest? No way.” the editors wrote.
“But taking into account the Democratic spending disparity, Kelly's candidate-quality advantages over Masters and the environment looking not as bad for Democrats, we don't really think this is a true toss-up anymore,” they continued. “So leans Democratic it is.”
Last week, a PAC connected to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell canceled an approximately $8 million ad buy in support of Masters.
A recent Trafalgar poll put Sen. Kelly in the lead by four points. The same poll also reported Trump-backed gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake slightly leading Democrat opponent Katie Hobbs.
In the Keystone State, Crystal Ball shifted the Senate Race between Trump-backed Mehmet Oz (R) and John Fetterman (D) towards Fetterman. The report suggests that despite Oz's efforts to ingratiate himself on the campaign trail his image has still taken a hit among voters. However, the editors note that the race is still likely to be close and Oz could manage to pull ahead.
“Oz does seem to be putting in the legwork by keeping an active schedule, but some of his self-inflicted wounds have often enabled the Fetterman campaign to control the narrative,” they wrote in their analysis.
“It is not as though Republicans have nothing to use against Fetterman — despite his well-crafted, burly image, he is not particularly moderate,” the editors wrote. “But image does matter in politics, and Fetterman's is just stronger than Oz's, at least for now.”
An Emerson College poll recently showed Fetterman leading Oz by four points.
Democrats have sought to capitalize on the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade, which has already begun to work in their favor. Meanwhile, Republicans have also focused on lowering crime rates, the economy and education as major focal points for their campaigns.
Overall, Republicans are still predicted to win back the House of Representatives this fall but the Senate very much hangs in the balance.
So, what do you think? Will Dr. Oz and Blake Masters manage to secure wins for the GOP this fall or will Democrats take these pro-Trump candidates out? Tell us what you think in the comments below!
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Rigging data again
Sabato! Seems like he also said Hilary would be our President!!
WHY I PAY NO ATTENTION TO THESE POLLS (and neither should you):
It appears these polls are put forth to push the narrative that the left is going to win or perhaps so they can say “ see we told you so “ after they steal another election
Just attempts by the Media, apparently including “American Liberty”, to suppress voter turn out by Republicans in November. This guy Sobato supports his decisions to move these predictions on how he FEELS about the elections. Now there’s some application of statistical science. Larry, did you even take statistics in college?
I read that Mitch McConnell’s PAC just took $8m away from Masters. His financial condition might be critical. I can only pray that the American Voter is sick and tired of the lies, illegals, drugs, and crime and will vote for America and not a Party. We lost Trump, so let’s try not to lose America.
Please define lost. If you mean the election was stolen from him I agree. I think even though the left is doing everything they can to keep him from running again, he has made up his mind in favor of running, as a result of the FBI being weaponized by Bidet and whoever is pulling his puppet strings. Mitch McConnell is as corrupt a politician as they come. He and his wife who has ties to several corporations in China, need to be prosecuted along with every individual involved in the assault on President Trump. #Stayfree #FreeSpeech #Truth #Trump2024
McConnell is a Chinese backed RINO. I don’t believe the stupid polls and I really believe the true American people, citizens of our country, will not choose to vote for any of these liberal socialist fascist pukes that pretend to care about our country but they only care about money and power. They will fail biggly.
Well I posted a reply however this website must be doing that censorship thing? Really,? What, the truth hurts? If you censor my post you will be removed from my page. No problem to me as I only like truth tellers not propogandists.
Let’s face it – mcconnell has already stated the repukicants cannot win the senate, and just to prove it he cancels the $8M ad buy for Masters , I suspect mainly because he was/is endorsed by President Trump who mcconnell despises!!!!!
If the people in Pennsylvania vote Fetterman in based on his terrible track record so far….they are nuts. Oz is a poor candidate, but at least he has a brain between his ears and has achieve success in his life versus the “air” between Fetterman’s ears and his complete lack of success in life. Track records are important people of PA!
Larry Sabato has shown his bias. As such, I can’t trust his predictions any longer. He’s rooting for Democrats and makes no bones about it. Impartiality is required for anyone who wants to be trusted as a “Crystal Ball.”
yea , more bs. The dems are in deep shine and they know it . And no amount of hopium or copium is going to save them from the Nov slaughter .
The November voting has not even started, and the “rigging” is already happening.
Oz needs to get on TV.
and Fetterman is really such a nothing. Outside his recent government jobs, he has never had so much as a real job. He spunged off of his inlaws for decades and being Mayor of Braddock, PA –where my grandfather started his shoe and women’s clothing business– is being mayor of a ghost town. I have seen tumbleweed blow through Braddock. There are 1,663 people living in the whole town. Probably no one else ran for Mayor, and I’ll be it doesn’t pay either.
Actually, Fetid – man was propped up financially by his parents (dad did well in the insurance business) and his sister for a good chunk of his adult life. The mayor’s position he held paid $150/month supplemented by proceeds from his marijuana sales. Also, Johnny holds an MBA from Harvard so the “working class guy” schtick is fraudulent. Did I mention that he is a Bernie Bro? All in all, a ne’er do well rich kid sponging off of daddy and mommy.
UGH More BS! and so it begins
It is difficult to understand the endorsement of democratic policies at this time with such challenging problems. How can one not see we were better off two years ago. In so many ways and policies. Just look at the countries state of affairs right now.
I think people need to pay more attention even if they can afford not to.
I looked it up: Fetterman was paid $150 A YEAR to be Mayor of Braddock, having a population of 1663. I’ll bet there was a lot of competition for that job. And crime soared while he was Mayor according to FBI statistics (if it gets out, I guess they’ll change them for the election).
Yes Dr. Oz and Blake Masters Will WIN for the GOP!