The New York Times polling shocker on the Biden campaign's weakness in key battleground states wasn't the only set of numbers to stir the presidential pot.
A Quinnipiac University poll that included hypothetical general election match-ups between Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. showed just how hungry the public is to vote for someone besides the two, broadly unpopular major party frontrunners.
According to the Quinnipiac numbers:
… Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 36 percent support, and Kennedy receives 22 percent support.
Among independents, 36 percent support Kennedy, 31 percent support Trump, and 30 percent support Biden.
In other words, Kennedy seems to have an audience. For now.
And if one is a major party frontrunner, these numbers are troubling. They show Kennedy's potential to play a Ross Perot-like role in the 2024 general election – not getting enough votes to win, but enough of an alternative to profoundly shape the outcome.
Which helps explain the anxiety on the GOP side about a Kennedy run. When Kennedy announced he was dropping out of the Democratic primaries to make an independent run, the Trump campaign said:
“Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values. The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told CNN after RFK's announcement, pointing to RFK's stance on a variety of social issues. “… A RFK candidacy is nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy looking to cash in on his family's name.”
Setting aside the utter lack of self-awareness in this statement, it shows that Team Trump believes Kennedy poses a bigger threat to him, that Biden.
Perhaps. But that's only true if Kennedy can get on the ballot in enough states to make his independent bid more than just rhetorical.
It's an open secret that the major parties have made it very difficult for all but a handful of independent candidacies to get nationwide ballot access. After all, giving voters more options is an existential threat to the status quo. And we just can't have that.
But even if Kennedy is able – like Perot – to get on every state ballot, would he be able to mount a credible, effective, national campaign?
That's entirely unknown. It would take fundraising and personnel resources Kennedy hasn't demonstrated so far.
But let's assume he does. Do the Q-Poll numbers show a likely outcome?
Generally, independent candidates begin to fade as Election Day gets closer. The 1980 example of Independent presidential candidate John Anderson shows the slow, but steady erosion of poll numbers over time. In the end, Anderson wasn't a spoiler so much as he was just another option on the ballot.
As a candidate, Kennedy is deeply problematic on a host of issues. But there may still be enough disgust with the two major party options that even a flawed candidate like Kennedy could be a player next November.
If he gets on the ballot. And runs a good campaign. And has the money, staff, and ability to see it through. That's a lot of “ifs” for any candidate, even one with a very famous name, to overcome.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
