New Poll Shows New York Democrats in Deep Trouble

- June 4, 2026
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Good morning.

Congress is mounting its strongest challenge yet to President Trump’s Iran War, federal prosecutors have unveiled a sanctions-evasion case tied to Iran’s nuclear program, and investigators in Washington, D.C., are digging deeper into allegations that police officials manipulated crime statistics.

The House of Representatives voted Wednesday to approve a war powers resolution to limit unauthorized American military involvement in Iran.

Sponsored by Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the measure would require the White House.

Metropolitan Transportation Authority of the State of New York (Marc A. Hermann / MTA), CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
3 minute read

A new poll commissioned by Trafalgar Group shows Republican candidates within striking distance of two of the most prominent Democrats — in one of the country’s bluest states.

According to a new survey of 1,000 likely voters in New York, Republican challenger Lee Zeldin is nipping at Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul’s proverbial heels. Hochul currently leads Zeldin 45% to 43% with 10% of voters undecided.

Arguably worse for Democrats, Republican Michael Henry trails anti-Trump Attorney General Letitia James by a single point.

While the RealClearPolitics polling average suggests Trafalgar’s polls may be outliers, Trafalgar is a reputable polling outfit with an A- accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight.

Bearing Arms adds:

If Hochul and James really are in electoral peril, there’s no doubt in my mind that their continued hostility towards the right of the people to keep and bear arms is one of the big reasons why. The new gun control laws rammed through the state legislature after the Supreme Court struck down the state’s “may issue” concealed carry laws may be popular in New York City, but the farther away you get from the Big Apple, the more opposition you find. Many county legislatures have passed resolutions condemning the new laws, and some are even talking about banding together to sue the state.

New York gun owners have even more reasons to be furious with lawmakers for their refusal to recognize the right to bear arms in self-defense, and if we see the same high turnout and lopsided margins in rural parts of the state (as well as decreased support for Democrats in the suburbs) then Election Day could produce some major surprises in the Empire State. Gun owners are definitely in an uphill fight, but today’s poll offers at least some evidence that victory is still within reach.

Trafalgar Group founder Robert C. Cahaly maintains that the 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the pollsters predict due to the continued demonization of MAGA voters from Democrats and the mainstream media.

Another Trafalgar Group poll from Wednesday showed Republican Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley two percentage points behind 30-year incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.).

READ NEXT: Demonized ‘Submerged’ MAGA Voters Hiding From Pollsters, Undercounting GOP Support >>

Picture of Patrick Houck

Patrick Houck

Patrick Houck is an avid political enthusiast based out of the Washington, D.C., metro area. His expertise is in campaigns and the use of targeted messaging to persuade voters. When not combing through the latest news, you can find him enjoying the company of family and friends or pursuing his love of photography.

7 Comments
    Tivo Moulton

    Throw all the Democrat bums out on their bums.

    Gus Richards

    Don’t get cocky, the democrats haven’t lost anything yet. The only way the GOP can win is if the people actually get out and vote. This could well be our last chance to purge all the democrats from our government, before they totally destroy our country.

    Rick

    The Dems should be run out of New York for what they’ve to the city and state.

      Lorraine Smith

      Ship them all off to Cuba or Venezuela.
      They’ll fit in much better there.

      Jawad

      Right, Lorraine…or ship ’em off to Belarus! Dictator Lukashenko will find them a new home on the Russian Front serving his lord and master Vlad.

    Deplorable Mark

    Are any of these candy dates MAGA, or just a bunch of useless RINOs?

Comments are closed.

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