Could trouble be brewing in the Deep South?
One week ahead of Mississippi's gubernatorial election the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race toward Democrats as Brandon Presley's popularity continues to surge.
Cook Political Report called the governor's contest “the most surprising race” among this year's off-year elections.
“Republican Gov. Tate Reeves still has the edge, according to Republicans and Democrats nationally and locally we've talked to, but it's morphed into a competitive fight with added intrigue heading into Election Day thanks to an unusually strong challenger in Brandon Presley. There is also an increasing scenario that neither candidate will top 50% on Nov. 7, which means the contest could head to a runoff three weeks later.”
Presley, a former mayor and relative to the legendary Elvis Presley, has been an unusually strong Democrat candidate in the reliably red state as he seeks to oust Reeves.
Corruption has been the central platform of Presley's campaign against the Republican Governor. Presley has focused on a welfare corruption scandal involving former NFL legend Brett Favre allegedly urging Reeves's predecessor, Gov. Phil Bryant, to help divert funds to finance a new facility at the University of Southern Mississippi. Reeves has pushed back that those scandals were under the previous administration and that there is no guilt by association.
In the closing weeks, Reeves has tried to turn that message of corruption around on Presley, pointing out that the Democrat has received campaign donations from green energy groups he's responsible for regulating. And they've doubled down on tying him to national Democrats and President Biden, pointing out in a recent ad that 80% of Presley's money has come from out of state.
“I think Brandon has run a good race, while Reeves is soft with some Republicans, particularly moderates,” one plugged-in Mississippi GOP consultant told us. “[Presley has] done everything you can do, he's been very disciplined and he's done a very good job staying on message. It's like he wakes up in the middle of the night and says ‘grocery tax cut, expand Medicare and corruption.'”
However several Republican strategists told Cook that Reeve's strong poll numbers could be providing a state false sense of security.
“My concern is that Brandon Presley has had a lot of cash come his way and he's spent aggressively on TV,” another veteran Mississippi Republican strategist told us. “To me the risk for Tate is his side tends to think he's fine, but Tate's likability is an issue, and I think that can affect turnout. I think the combination of that and Presley having more money makes an eight-point race closer potentially.”
The report noted this race may come down to turnout and the ground game as some Mississippi Republicans expressed concerns overenthusiasm at the polls.
“My message to Republicans would be, Brandon Presley's got a big wad of cash and there's great risk of us having low turnout,” one of the Magnolia State GOP strategists told us. “If [Presley] spends his cash wisely on turning out the Democratic vote, this thing could be really really close.”
“If Republican turnout is softer than it would be otherwise,” there's cause for concern, the other Mississippi Republican told us. “But I know if Bennie is engaged,” Democrats might be able to “juice [Black turnout] somewhat.”
The Reeves campaign maintains they aren't worried, and argues that if there is low turnout — which wouldn't be surprising — it will hurt both parties across the board.
The potential for a runoff is increasingly being talked about in Mississippi political circles, sources told Cook. One GOP source put it at 50/50 odds, though they were clear that Reeves would have the advantage.
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