North Korean Troops In Ukraine [Warning: Graphic Content]

Social posts and Spot Reports (SPOTREPS) from a variety of independent conflict journalists and local military personnel began reporting the large-scale commitment of North Korean troops to Russian offensive operations against the forces of Ukraine around the 12th of December. Presumably fighting alongside, if not outright commanded by, Russian officers, soldiers of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) seem to be poorly trained and just as poorly led.

These reports have been confirmed by a number of official sources, including General Anatoliy Barhylevych. Gen. Barhylevych, the head of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is on record as saying pro-Ukrainian forces are fighting DPRK troops in the Kursk Area of Operations (AO).

Warning: Some imagery and videos in the article below are very graphic and may be extremely disturbing to some viewers.

North Koreans Reportedly Suffer Appalling Losses Near Kursk

North Korean soldiers, referred to by Russian command elements as the “special Buryat battalion” of the 11th Separate Air Assault Battalion, have been attacking Ukrainian formations and fortifications with infantry charges en masse across open ground with little or no cover. These attacks are about as successful as (and show roughly the same tactical proficiency as) what was seen during WWI.

Unfortunately, casualty and deployment reports are wildly inconsistent. Entities ranging from the Ukrainian military to South Korean intelligence have confidently estimated the number of dead and wounded in numbers ranging from 100 on the low end to as high as 3,000 or more on the other. This is due to an aggregate combination of factors explained further below.

North Korean troops in Ukraine, at least those currently committed to offensive operations, seem to consist mostly of infantry units and some mortar crews.

A description by one American volunteer serving in Ukraine sums it up perfectly:

“We’re stacking NORK¹ bodies deep.”

Even some people on the pro-Ukraine side of things feel bad for the North Koreans, who undoubtedly had zero choice in the deployment and now find themselves dying in droves half a continent away.

This Casualty Collection Point (CCP) is just one of many; this one in particular has been described as the work of the “Birds of Magyar” drone unit of the Ukrainian 414th Separate Regiment. These men were reportedly killed during an online dismounted charge across open ground.

North Korean soldiers are said to be well-disciplined but very poorly equipped; like the convicts of Russian “penal units,” these soldiers are likely being used in high-risk roles with little hope of doing more than continuing the constant attrition of Ukrainian soldiers.

North Korean soldiers are not the only troops being brought in to help mitigate Russia’s extraordinary casualty rate (which is now reported to be higher than the current Russian birth rate). There are many reports of Yemeni “mercenaries” also being deployed against pro-Ukrainian troops.

Whether these are actual mercenaries in the dictionary sense or just Yemeni soldiers who’ve been voluntold they’re going to Russia is unclear. They could actually be hired guns, potentially even volunteers, but the majority were probably traded to Russia for armament, technology or some other national advantage the Russians can provide.

Mercenaries from a number of other countries, including China and the United States, have been reported as fighting with pro-Russian forces as well.

Casualty Contradictions and Intelligence Inconsistencies

While it’s pretty clear North Koreans are fighting the Ukrainians in the Kursk AO, the actual number of troops committed, like their casualty rates, cannot be easily determined. At least when utilizing only Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) sources. Such reports are fraught with inconsistencies. Some of this is no doubt intentional. More of it is shoddy reporting. A vast amount of it is what’s to be expected in the friction of war (particularly when every rifleman with a phone or GoPro has the potential to be a biased reporter).

Another very significant element is undoubtedly the conflation of Russian soldiers of ethnic origin with actual North Korean troops. Absent a field interrogation, corroborating documents, or other form of validation, any soldier can go on social media and report a dead North Korean. That report, however well-intentioned, will then go on to be a social media fact.

Pointing out such potential confusion is by no means a denial that DPRK troops are present in the fighting. I’m simply pointing out the risks of assumption when it comes to battlefield analysis (and, of course, to anything resembling journalistic reporting).

Some Ukrainian officials have put the number of North Korean dead at 3,000. In mid-December, President Zelenskyi said, “Losses among this category [of DPRK troops used in parts of the front line] are already noticeable.”

According to the Telegraph, he made that number more specific, saying some 3,000 North Korean troops had been “killed or wounded” since late October. This is a significant difference from far more conservative reports that put the number of KIA and WIA more in the range of several hundred.

It’s difficult to know who to believe.

The video linked below shows a (reportedly DPRK) soldier, killed in action (KIA). But there’s nothing definitive to substantiate that claim.

⚠️ GRAPHIC

https://twitter.com/i/status/1872339439231635792

North Koreans KIA: a Cautionary Clarification

As we look into this topic, one of the most significant questions we must be asking about the deployment of North Korean soldiers alongside Russian formations is, are they actually Koreans?

For more than a year now, Russian ethnic minorities – the vast majority of them Asian – have provided an incommensurate number of both conscripts and volunteers. In aggregate, they have also made up an even more disproportionate percentage of Russian casualties.

Russian minorities of Asian lineage reported as casualties (including Turkic peoples) at a much higher rate than their Slavic and similar counterparts include: Buryats, Chukchi, Kalmyks, Nenets, Tuvans, and others. This list could just as easily include Evenks, Komi, Khanty, or others.

When someone refers to a Russian soldier as Siberian, he could be referring to someone from any of some 50 ethnic groups. And those soldiers are dying in droves.

“Though ethnic Russians comprise the majority of deaths in absolute terms, Russia’s non-Slavic minorities and indigenous peoples are greatly overrepresented among the casualties relative to their share in the country’s population…Buryats, a Mongolic ethic group native to southeastern Siberia, are most [disproportionately numbered] among Russia’s war casualties, followed by Tyvans, Kalmyks, Chuckhis, and Nenet Peoples…” The Moscow Times, Feb. 2024

It would be difficult for the average viewer to distinguish between soldiers of those ethnicities given the often confused reports and grainy photos and videos coming out of the war zone.

That hasn’t changed since the DPRK announced the deployment of its first tranche of troops to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Why does this matter? It’s important because if we want to track and evaluate the effect of NK troops on the battlefield, we need to make sure we’re studying the correct troops!

This isn’t a wiseass crack about Asian troops “all looking alike.” But there are undeniably close similarities between various ethnic groups, many very subtle. As a result we’ve recently surge of breathless, even melodramatic, posts and articles purporting to show human wave attacks across open ground, DPRK soldiers and vehicles killed by drones, and other sensational stories.

While these events undeniably happened (we wouldn’t have video imagery and grisly footage that somebody’s units are taking high casualties if not), there is little corroborative evidence to tell us what formation (or nationality) those casualties really are.

The Ukrainians have captured ethnic Kazakh, Uzbek, and even Chinese and Nepalese fighters (among others) during combat with the Russian Army and with Russian-controlled PMCs. In the confusion of a battle, with grainy footage and out-of-control RUMINT, those could be confused as NORKs.

As the BBC put it, referring to Russian casualties, ” The actual toll [of dead and wounded Russian national soldiers] is likely much higher than can be determined through open sources. Military experts we interviewed suggest that our analysis of Russian cemeteries, war memorials, and obituaries may account for between 45% and 65% of the real death toll.”

No estimate of Russian losses of men or materiel, from any source, seems to line up exactly with others. On occasion, we’ve seen reporting agencies (including the U.S. State Department!) contradict themselves, sometimes within just a couple of days!

How much more difficult, then, will it be to determine the fate of North Korean troops in Ukraine accurately? The DPRK is a notoriously insular state; neither its leadership nor that of its Russian allies has any interest in admitting failure.

Time will tell. Hopefully without an obscene body count.

¹NORK is a U.S. military slang term for North Korean.

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