There's still some debate over whether the U.S. economy has slipped into recession, despite strong job numbers and moderating oil prices.
The debate is far less about economic reality than it is politics – just like everything else. If your team thinks it needs confirmation of a recession to goose its chances of winning in November, then any data that doesn't bolster your case is cooked or crooked. It's the same if your team denies there's a recession because admitting one is at hand risks an Election Day wipeout.
What if both swarms of partisan cheerleaders are wrong, and the real issue isn't what the economic history books tell us (remember, all that economic data about recessions is backward-looking), but what's coming at us in the future?
Cato's Scott Lincicome says it's the look ahead that should really command our energy and attention:
…the debate has wasted a lot of precious time on communicating our messy reality to the American public and on developing and implementing actual policy that might actually improve the U.S. economy's questionable trajectory. Most of the policy effort, for better or worse, rests with the Fed right now, but there still remain a handful of policies—mainly on loosening up the economy's supply side and reducing uncertainty—that the White House and Congress could pursue to take some pressure off American consumers and companies.
While it's dicey to put much faith in the political class to do what's in the nation's long-term interest, as opposed to its own short-term political needs, what might the solons on Capitol Hill do to avoid a recessionary ditch?
First…and as is usually the case…they need to get a grip on fiscal reality:
Unfortunately, Biden and congressional Democrats don't really appear too interested in doing any of that stuff. Indeed, the last week or so has featured even more near-term deficit spending (e.g., the $79 billion in semiconductor subsidies that just passed Congress and the frontloaded “Inflation Reduction Act” that promises tens of billions more before any major tax revenues arrive); even more supply side restrictions (e.g., “prevailing wage” rules tied to the chip subsidies or the IRA's proposed electric vehicle protectionism); and even more economic uncertainty (e.g., how the IRA's new corporate taxes would be calculated). None of that is good for a teetering, inflationary U.S. economy—regardless of what the legislation might be named.
In other words, the course the pols have charted looks a lot like it's taking us straight to the rocks. And that's the problem – not where the economy has been, but where those in office seem determined to take us.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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In the blue states, recession denial is an important concept because if tax assessors can claim we’re not in recession, they (in their minds) have every reason to keep raising taxes.
Democrats and the MSM are mutually supporting. They will say and do anyrthing to distract from real issues. The example I use (sadly, for years now) is Obamacare. While it was going through congress, Obama promised the American people,”If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. Period. If you like your healthcare plan, you can keep your healthcare plan. Period.”
Once Barack signed it, there was no getting around the fact that he lied to the nation. So, MSM stories about the wonderful Obamacare were akin to gushing that the Titanic was wonderful because “People Arrived In New York!” No mention of stuff like the ship sank, more than half the people died, etc
Oh, yes, we are in a recession and keeping a Alzheimer’s ridden socialist in our White house will drag us down into a full blown depression
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The availability, and thus the price of energy rules all the other costs of the government and the economy. Biden’s first day in the Oval Office when he restricted the transportation, production and exploration of American energy, he set the stage for all that came after. Biden’s actions halted American Energy Independence and has led to the economic and political quagmire we are in along with the world wide crisis the lack of American Leadership causes.
while brandon was fiddling the hores in the house were diddling with the 6 going on 7 year impeachment hearings that morphed into the phony January 6th BS riot… the Kangaroo Court continues with that tub of guts, shifty shiftless displaying as much Alzheimer’s markers as the Big guy.. not too mention the rest of the democrat hore’s criminal mismanagement of their oath of office… the millennials are watching this and think that we are seeing parliamentarian performance of the very best kind instead of a sad version of Kabuki Theater for the mentally challenged …
Been wrong day 1, lying day 1
Cant be trusted