ANALYSIS – Can Americans in Taiwan count on Joe Biden?
As tensions rise, and communist China’s belligerence and threats increase, the United States is reportedly planning worst-case scenarios for getting American citizens (AMCITS) out of Taiwan.
This is according to The Messenger, which cites three senior government sources,
The inter-agency planning, which has supposedly been going on for six months, has been deeply influenced by Team Biden’s disastrous and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the emergency evacuations of Americans from Ukraine and Sudan.
“Ukraine drove a relook at what the plans were,” said one source. But Team Biden has also taken fire for not doing enough help to Americans elsewhere – most recently in Sudan.
Hundreds of Americans and tens of thousands of loyal Afghans who worked for the U.S. were also abandoned in the chaotic last days of the evacuation from Kabul.
As of 2019, there were more than 80,000 Americans living in Taiwan. A good number of these AMCITS are likely dual nationals.
While some of this Taiwan evacuation planning may be standard contingency preparation, “it’s heated up over the past two months or so,” a senior U.S. intelligence official told the newspaper.
The official added that a “heightened level of tension” had driven the uptick in preparations.
Team Biden appears to be preparing for the worst even as its Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment directly on the planning.
He only said: “We do not see a conflict in the Taiwan Strait as imminent or inevitable.”
And it may be wise to keep the evac planning on the down low.
As one former State Department official told The Messenger, “Even talking about an [evacuation plan] starts people thinking something may be going on even if it is just prudent planning.”
And that can add to the tension.
Still, despite the efforts to downplay the prospect of conflict, a war over Taiwan is increasingly likely in the next two to three years. (RELATED: China Threatens To ‘Smash’ Taiwan If US Continues To Send Arms And Advisors)
Whether it will take the form of a blockade by China, some sort of gray zone warfare, an outright invasion, or a combination of all three, is the real question.
And, imminent or not, we need to plan regardless. As The Messenger reports:
Planning for an evacuation from Taiwan “is a very prudent thing to do,” said Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has run Taiwan war games and was involved in the 1975 evacuation of Americans from Saigon. But he added that these are only contingency plans. “The fact that the U.S. is doing this doesn’t mean that they expect there will be a war. It’s only a statement that there could be a war.”
Unfortunately, getting Americans out before the shooting starts will be difficult. Once a war begins things will get exponentially more challenging.
“Imagine a D-Day invasion and then a third country – Switzerland or something like that – wants to send a cruise ship through the U.S. fleet to Normandy to pick up its citizens,” Cancian said.
“Once the shooting starts it’s very, very difficult,” he added.
And if war does come, it won’t just be Americans trying to get out. Hundreds of thousands of other foreigners in Taiwan – and Taiwanese citizens – will be trying to escape as well.
The Messenger notes:
Other governments have already drawn up evacuation plans for Taiwan or are in the process of doing so –- including Indonesia, which has roughly 300,000 citizens in Taiwan, the largest foreign population on the island, made up mostly of migrant workers. Officials from the Philippines, which has about 150,000 citizens in Taiwan, have also said they have contingency plans in place. And last year, Japan and Taiwan began talks on an evacuation plan for Japanese citizens.
Imagine all these people trying to leave at the same time from a relatively small island within missile and strike aircraft range of the Chinese mainland.
To make matters worse, Taiwan’s main airports are on the island’s China-facing west coast and would likely be under attack.
A seaborne evacuation would not be much easier. Chartered ships might be sent instead planes, but high-intensity combat might make that option almost impossible too.
An evacuation of Americans from Taiwan will be a herculean task even with a good U.S. president at the helm.
But based on recent examples such as Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Sudan, under Biden, I would be very concerned if I were an American in Taiwan.
Much more so if war is imminent.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Any Americans thinking they will need to get out of Taiwan before long need to take the initiative and get working on it NOW.
If they procrastinate and think that Joe Bitem will save them, they may as well kiss their own a$$es goodbye.
More proof that bidumdum si going to GIVE Taiwan to the ccp – probaboly already has it worked out with xi!