Well-known election prognosticator and analyst Nate Silver says Donald Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris this November.
Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, “The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote.
Silver’s nuanced election forecast model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday, Harris’ odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%. The shift marks the widest margin in months.
He also noted that Harris seemingly didn’t benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.
“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” Silver wrote.
Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a “slight underdog” in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.
The polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign, writing on X that Michigan could present an “issue” for Harris.
However, a different elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys.
Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, revealed in a New York Times video that he believes that Harris will clinch a victory over former President Trump. His election model is based on 13 true-or-false questions that ignore polls and pollsters.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said at the end of the video.
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