Mark Carney has secured a full term as Canada’s prime minister after a dramatic comeback in Monday night’s 2025 federal election, where the Liberal Party overturned a significant polling deficit in the final months to clinch 168 seats — just two short of a majority. The Liberals are expected to form a minority government, extending their dominance in Ottawa into a fourth consecutive term.
The result marks arguably one of the most stunning collapses in Canadian political history. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, once heavily favored to win, not only lost the national race but also failed to hold onto his Ottawa seat — a humiliation not seen for a Conservative Party leader since Kim Campbell’s defeat in 1993.
The Trump Effect
Much of the late-stage shift in voter sentiment was triggered by events south of the border. President Donald Trump’s aggressive posture toward Canada — including the imposition of tariffs — culminated in a provocative Election Day social media post suggesting “annexation,” sparking a nationalist surge among Canadian voters. Carney seized the moment, framing Trump as “a threat” in his victory speech and positioning himself as the defender of Canadian sovereignty.
During Monday night’s live coverage, Carney declared: “Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never happen.”
Poilievre, often described as Canada’s Ron DeSantis, struggled to navigate the new political terrain. His campaign, which had drawn inspiration from Trump’s populist messaging, suddenly appeared dangerously out of step with a Canadian electorate rattled by the new president’s aggressive focus on Canada. Poilievre’s perceived inability to sufficiently confront Trump’s provocations alienated moderates seeking reassurance.
By Election Day, Poilievre was the least popular federal leader among women, a critical demographic that turned decisively against the Conservatives.
Carney’s Rise
Carney’s ascension to the top job had seemed nearly impossible just three months ago. After Justin Trudeau stepped down, the Liberals — written off by many — rallied around the former central banker, known for his steady demeanor and global experience.
Carney’s campaign emphasized economic stability, middle-class tax cuts and a tough stance on defending Canadian interests internationally. His performance during the televised debates — measured, detailed and focused — provided a sharp contrast to Poilievre’s rhetoric.
As Time magazine reported, “Suddenly, Poilievre — who has spent the last several years remaking himself, and his party, in Trump’s image — started sounding like the enemy. Now he’s found himself in the very same predicament that DeSantis once did. The two men are an object lesson in the pitfalls of trying to do Trumpism without Trump.”
Strategic Missteps
Poilievre’s campaign made a series of critical errors. First, his team misread the electorate’s priorities after Trump’s reelection, focusing heavily on domestic grievances about inflation and the cost of living while underplaying foreign policy concerns that Trump had unexpectedly thrust into the spotlight — a major miscalculation given that the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and that 90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the U.S. border.
Second, the Conservative Party released a revised, post-Trump-reelection 2025 platform, Canada First — For a Change, less than a week before the election. Analysts noted that the platform’s last-minute debut added confusion at a time when voters were demanding clarity and decisive leadership.
Third, internal discord further weakened the Conservatives. Disagreements over messaging, particularly over how aggressively to distance the party from Trump, fed a narrative of disunity.
Ultimately, the late-stage tactical voting among centrists, women and urban Canadians outside the Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, combined with the collapse of smaller parties like the NDP and Bloc Québécois, sealed the Conservatives’ fate.
NDP and Bloc Collapse
The New Democratic Party suffered catastrophic losses, with leader Jagmeet Singh losing his seat and announcing his resignation within hours of the polls closing. The Bloc Québécois also stumbled badly, hemorrhaging votes to the Liberals in Quebec.
Faced with the prospect of a Conservative government perceived as soft on Trump, left-leaning voters who had previously been disaffected by Canada’s economic malaise coalesced around Carney and the Liberals in a strategic bid to defend Canadian sovereignty.
A New Liberal Era
Despite falling short of a majority, Carney enters office with considerable momentum. His priorities include negotiating new trade agreements, strengthening ties with Europe and Asia and pursuing middle-class tax relief.
Carney must also manage an uneasy minority government — a challenge, but one that pales in comparison to the existential crisis now facing the Conservatives, who must decide whether to double down on their populist pivot or chart a new course.
The coming months will test Canada’s political resilience. But for now, the Liberals have pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in modern Canadian history, and Mark Carney has emerged as the improbable guardian of Canada’s national identity against its southern neighbor.
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So do they use machines also?
I hope Carney has a back-up career planned.