Are These 5 Senate Seats Likely to Flip in November?

United States House of Representatives - Office of Ruben Gallego, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
American Liberty News
- June 4, 2026
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Arizona Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego is launching an effort to challenge a new Trump Administration immigration policy that could require many green card applicants to leave the United States and complete the process abroad.

According to a report from The Hill, Gallego is not only seeking to overturn the policy itself but is also pursuing a procedural strategy that could make it easier for Congress to reverse the change.

The dispute revolves around a recent U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) policy affecting how certain immigrants obtain lawful permanent residency.

4 minute read

Georgia – Raphael Warnock

DeltaNewsHub via Wikimedia Commons

Since winning one of Georgia’s two Senate seats that were up for special election in January 2021, Warnock has been a key target for national Republicans.

Warnock is most likely to face former NFL player and Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker in November. Walker has been endorsed by both Mitch McConnell and former President Donald Trump.

Arizona – Mark Kelly

Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America via Wikimedia Commons

Elected and seated in 2020 to fill the seat of the late John McCain, Kelly is now running for his first full term. The former NASA astronaut and United States Navy captain has tried to set himself apart from his party and the president on issues that matter to Arizonans such as border security.

Last month he called out the administration for not having a plan to address the immigration crisis on the southern border. It remains to be seen if that will be enough to separate Kelly from Biden in the eyes of Arizona voters.

Blake Masters is a name that keeps coming up in the field of Kelly’s potential GOP challengers. Masters has close ties to tech billionaire Peter Thiel, having led both Thiel’s non-profit and venture capital firm.

New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan

Office of Senator Maggie Hassan via Wikimedia Commons

New Hampshire is a state that is usually at the forefront of national Republicans’ minds due to the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary. This year brings a new reason to focus both attention and money on the state. Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan is running for reelection in a seat that she won by 1,017 votes in 2016.

Other factors to weigh in this race are the unpopularity that President Joe Biden has in the state, and how popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu is.

Notably, Sununu chose not to run for the Senate seat and instead is seeking another term as governor, which leaves Republicans with no clear frontrunner in a race with one of the last primaries in the country — on September 13th.

Nevada – Catherine Cortez Masto

Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America via Wikimedia Commons

Democratic win margins in Nevada were virtually unchanged from 2016 to 2020. Additionally, Cortez Masto and Biden won their campaigns by about 2%. Another factor that may play a part in the election this year is that Nevada was a state that has seen significant population growth. The state was number five on the list of the ten fastest-growing states according to U.S. News and World Report, based on 2020 census numbers. One of Nevada’s biggest draws is that there is no state income tax, which could weigh more heavily on conservative-minded Americans.

Cortez Masto’s Republican opponent will most likely be the state’s former attorney general — Adam Laxalt. Laxalt has drawn support from the likes of Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell and Ron DeSantis. Mike Pompeo will head to the state next week to campaign with Laxalt ahead of the state’s June 14th primary.

Washington – Patty Murray

US Department of Labor via Wikimedia Commons

Although Washington is a solidly blue state, a big enough red wave could flip this seat. All statewide seats are held by Democrats, but the Washington State Republican Party did hold a majority of state senate seats as recently as 2017.

In Tiffany Smiley, Washington Republicans have a candidate who is a breath of fresh air. Smiley is a political outsider whose eyes were opened to the inefficiencies of big government when she had to fight the VA system to get care for her husband, who lost his sight in Iraq after being injured in a suicide bomber attack.

The $2.5 million her team has on hand, per Q1 FEC filing data, definitely won’t hurt her chances either.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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Victoria Snitsar Churchill is a proud immigrant and naturalized U.S. citizen with a decade of experience in grassroots politics and community organizing.

Her writing has been featured in many online publications, including Campus Reform, The Daily Torch and The Daily Signal.

As an undergraduate at the University of Kansas, Victoria appeared in media outlets such as CBS News, TIME Magazine, The Washington Post Magazine, The Blaze and NRATV.

Victoria is also a former NCAA D1 student-athlete and Kansas College Republicans State Chair.

After moving eleven times in six years, Victoria resides in Arlington, Virginia and enjoys overpriced brunch on Sundays with her husband.

Picture of Victoria Snitsar Churchill

Victoria Snitsar Churchill

Victoria Snitsar Churchill is a proud immigrant and naturalized U.S. citizen with a decade of experience in grassroots politics and community organizing.

Her writing has been featured in many online publications, including Campus Reform, The Daily Torch and The Daily Signal.

As an undergraduate at the University of Kansas, Victoria appeared in media outlets such as CBS News, TIME Magazine, The Washington Post Magazine, The Blaze and NRATV.

Victoria is also a former NCAA D1 student-athlete and Kansas College Republicans State Chair.

After moving eleven times in six years, Victoria resides in Arlington, Virginia and enjoys overpriced brunch on Sundays with her husband.

1 Comment
    Michael

    I doubt more than 2 seats will change because it’s not a presidential election and the left will be able to focus on election fraud providing a more precise attack. Republicans are not committed to fight fire with fire. There has been very little if any attempt to put those responsible for the 2020 election ballot harvesting in jail. Why should the Democrats stop now?

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